Sean Trende

Senior Elections Analyst at RealClear Politics

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Articles

Exploring the future of the conservative movement

1 month ago | penntoday.upenn.edu | Sean Trende |Meridith McGraw

Skip to Content Skip to Content 3 min. read At a recent Penn forum, a panel of political pundits, analysts and former elected officials from both parties addressed the history and future of the GOP and the conservative movement. The Republican Party of the future, they said, is a new breed of conservative movement powered by populism with roots going back to the 1960s, thanks in part to the realignment of traditional party coalitions.
"En el 'tecnofeudalismo' eres solo un siervo digital"

2 months ago | agendapublica.es | Sean Trende

Mientras se reúne la derecha radical europea en Madrid para celebrar la llegada de Donald Trump, Agenda Pública comparte, en exclusiva para España, la entrevista más relevante de uno de los ideólogos de cabecera del trumpismo. Lo advertimos: la entrevista es larga, pero vale la pena, y aborda las interioridades del complejo fenómeno de la nueva derecha radical en la que los propietarios de las grandes compañías tecnológicas tienen un papel clave.
The Enduring "c"onservative Majority

Jan 21, 2025 | realclearpolling.com | Sean Trende

In 1968, Kevin Phillips wrote a book called “The Emerging Republican Majority.” Its theory was that the 1952-1964 elections had demonstrated that the Republican Party had succeeded in breaking off southerners and working-class white voters in sufficient numbers that the days of the New Deal Coalition were behind us. At the time, Phillips’ idea seemed a stretch.
2024 Was a Rehash of 2022

Nov 26, 2024 | fairfieldsuntimes.com | Sean Trende

Now that states have begun to wrap up their vote counts, we can talk with more authority about the results from 2024. There’s been a fair amount of introspection already from Democrats, combined with the usual gnashing of teeth that accompanies a losing national campaign. One thing, which is important for elections analysis, that seems to be overlooked in the effort: The results were a near-perfect repeat of the 2021-23 election returns. We can start with the popular vote.
The New Playbook: Lessons from the 2024 Election

Nov 22, 2024 | bakerinstitute.org | Sean Trende |Ali Swenson |Rebecca Green |Molly Ball

With the conclusion of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Americans are left reflecting on a race that has redefined aspects of modern campaigning and voting. This historic election introduced new methods of voter engagement and technological advances in outreach strategies that have reshaped the electoral landscape. But one question remains: What will the outcomes mean for the future of American democracy?
What the 2024 Election Returns Tell Us

Nov 7, 2024 | realclearpolling.com | Sean Trende

Some very preliminary thoughts on the 2024 results:Trump is a political colossus. There’s no denying this now. Trump took the foundation of the Obama coalition, picked it apart in 2016, and ripped it to shreds in 2024. Whatever your thoughts on the “Emerging Democratic Majority” thesis that motivated Barack Obama’s ascendancy, it wasn’t supposed to look like an orange-skinned culture warrior winning 45% of the Hispanic vote and one in four African American men.
What To Make of the Selzer Poll?

Nov 4, 2024 | realclearpolling.com | Sean Trende

Pollster Ann Selzer lobbed the equivalent of a hand grenade into X (nee Twitter) last night when she dropped a poll of Iowa showing Vice President Kamala Harris up 3 points. Needless to say, this would be a great result for Harris if it holds up. But will it hold up? There are reasons to take the poll seriously, but also reasons to doubt it. Here are some thoughts for and against the finding.
Please Don’t Pay (Much) Attention to Early Voting Numbers

Oct 30, 2024 | realclearpolling.com | Sean Trende

Every two years around this time, impatience begins to set in among election watchers. After all, we’ve been watching candidate recruitment, primary elections, and poll developments for, well, just short of two years now, and we are ready for some data. Every two years around this time, we finally get it in the form of early voting data. Like manna, these data seem heaven-sent, tempting those who analyze elections into making predictions about the future.
AEI Election Watch 2024: What Happened, and What’s Next?

Oct 23, 2024 | aei.org | With Karlyn Bowman |John Fortier |Chris Stirewalt |Sean Trende

After a turbulent election year, AEI’s Election Watch team gathers for a final time to examine the results and look ahead to the 119th Congress. The panelists will cover what we know about the presidential contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, key Senate and House races, and what the results mean for 2025 and beyond. If battleground states remain uncalled, the experts will break down what ballots remain uncounted and explain which candidate they see as the favorite.
It's Close, But the Signs Aren't Good for Harris

Oct 23, 2024 | realclearpolling.com | Sean Trende

With less than two weeks until Election Day, the publicly available data continues to suggest a closer race than any election I’ve covered. Although our poll averages show Donald Trump winning by 312 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 226 electoral votes, this doesn’t tell the full story. In the key battleground states, four of Trump’s leads are under a single decimal point: As of this writing, 0.8% in Pennsylvania, 0.4% in North Carolina, 0.4% in Wisconsin, and 0.9% in Michigan.