Shane Oliver

If Apple iPhone production is all shifted back to the US the price an iPhone 16 would surge to ~$2500 (or > $2000 if all of Apple’s US retail margin was wiped). This reflects US wages being at least 5x China & India. Apple & others would likely not find the workers needed anyway! https://t.co/BqIdCBJ9Y3

Trumps latest tariff chaos is not surprising (he threatened take it or leave it tariffs on countries a week ago & those on phones are just the sectoral tariffs) but if implemented will push the avg US tariff back up to 18.5% (7 x last yr) & remind the tariff war is far from over https://t.co/lxrsAq94aX

Eurozone shares -1.5% (-1.3% wk) US shares -0.7%(-2.6% wk) as Trump threatened 50% tariff on EU,25% on smart phones US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.51% Oil +0.5% to $62.2 Gold +1.9% to $3357.5 Iron ore -0.2% to $99.6 Bitcoin $107k,down with shares ASX futures -0.4% $A 0.646 with $US -0.8% https://t.co/uSIjyrif6m

Weekly economic and market update - the US OBBBA tax cut bill & public debt crisis risk; expect more faster RBA rate cuts; Victoria's debt debacle could add $300m to its interest costs; rising US price pressures Weekly market update - 23-05-2025 - AMP https://t.co/18rekqbpKU

I had a great chat with Maja on the Relative Return Insider podcast this week. Relative Return Insider: Navigating rate cuts and global uncertainty https://t.co/7SxqkwezxL

Japan April inflation unchanged at 3.6%yoy with sharp increases in food and energy prices (with the latter due to a phase down in subsidies). Core ex food and energy inflation as unchanged at 1.6%yoy. BoJ will likely remain on hold for a while yet (Goldman Sachs chart) https://t.co/50MWvgoNKH

The US composite PMI for May rose, but input and output price pressures continued to surge - which will help keep the Fed in wait and see mode. https://t.co/qOL3dGhnm1

Developed country composite business conditions for May improved very slightly with weaker conditions in Europe & Japan but stronger conditions in the US with the partial tariff pause. However, input & output price pressures rose due to sharp US increases reflecting the tariffs. https://t.co/HRQO4tPjiX

https://t.co/rkLtSpmbvf

US initial jobless claims -2k and remaining low, continuing claims +36k. April existing home sales -0.5%mom and remaining weak. (EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts) https://t.co/O8qqlGXOvG

Eurozone shares -0.6% US shares -0.04% after being +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.3% US 10 yr yld -7bp to 4.53% Oil -1.1% to $60.9 Gold -0.6% to $3297.4 Iron ore -0.1% to $99.9 Bitcoin $111k ASX futures +0.3% $A 0.6411 with $US index +0.2%

Australia’s composite PMI fell 0.4 in May to a soft 50.6 with weaker services and falls in orders and employment. Input and output price pressures fell and backlogs remain negative suggesting easing inflationary pressures. https://t.co/ALb90jKqsu

Eurozone shares flat US shares -1.6%, Nas -1.4% as bond ylds up on poor bond auction/US debt concerns US 10 yr yld +11bp to 4.6% Oil -0.7% to $61.6 Gold +0.8% to $3317 Iron ore -0.2% to $100.05 Bitcoin $108.5k helped by debt worries ASX futures -1% $A 0.6433 with $US -0.3%

UK Apr inflation up > exp to 3.5%y from 2.6% due to higher utility prices which also pushed up core inflation to 3.8% from 3.4%. Next BoE cut may not come till Sept Canadian infl also fell less than exp to 1.7%yoy with core trim up to 3.1%. Will keep BoC cautious,next cut in Sep https://t.co/OO2vosYQ64

Our thoughts on the latest RBA rate cut - more to go. Oliver's Insights - The RBA cuts again - AMP https://t.co/OIuTMnouSF

Eurozone shares +0.5% US shares -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.4% US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.49% Oil -1% to $62 Gold +2% to $3290.2 Iron ore +0.2% to $100.3 Bitcoin $106.5k ASX futures +0.6% $A 0.6418 with $US index -0.2%

..RBA monetary policy is “somewhat less restrictive” but the cash rate is still above the avg of the RBAs estimates of neutral (~ 2.8% in this chart). With trimmed mean infl expected to be around target & policy still tight further cuts are likely. We expect the next cut in Aug. https://t.co/w7YcKE5OdI