Shane Oliver

Weekly economic and market update - tariff shock a long way from resolved; Trump seriously threatening Fed independence would be bad; Aust election promises are like Easter Eggs; ECB cuts, RBA to cut in May Weekly market update - 18-04-2025 - AMP https://t.co/Rg656zS8Mr

#Fed independence has been central to the mostly low inflation & low bond yield environment in the US since the 1970s & 80s. Any move to remove or weaken it would backfire with a further back up in bond yields and intensification of the asset market stress seen a week or so ago

Japanese March CPI inflation fell to 3.6%yoy from 3.7%. Core (ex food and energy) rose from 1.5%yoy to a still low, but better than it used to be, 1.6%yoy. (Goldman Sachs chart) https://t.co/TZzTvmVfdH

The unfortunate decline in teenage reading in the US…the lines cross over around the time when the iPhone came along. (Chart via The Daily Shot) https://t.co/6QGf5WlYtV

Eurozone shares -0.5% (+3.7% wk) US shares +0.1% (-1.5% wk)..was +1% with Trump talking up trade deals but concern re Fed independence US 10 yr yld +5bp to 4.33% Oil +3.5% to $64.7 Gold -0.5% to $3326.8 Iron ore flat at $99.55 Bitcoin $85k ASX futures -0.4% $A 0.639 with $US flat https://t.co/4E0UjMbKeJ

Trump’s US stagflation. Weaker growth and rising prices in the Empire & Phily Fed surveys thanks to tariffs. This is making life hard for the Fed (to Trump’s annoyance) but weaker grth will likely ultimately win out driving rate cuts from ~mid yr. (EvercoreISI charts) https://t.co/Vx0nQYetT3

US housing starts down 11.4% in March and remain weak. (Bloomberg chart) https://t.co/bAAqmMTevJ

The ECB cut its policy rates by 0.25% as widely expected citing a deteriorating growth outlook due to Trump’s tariff war. Expect a cut to around 1.5% for teh deposit rate by year end. (Bloomberg chart) https://t.co/D8nut2yEY1

Our Jobs Leading Indicator still points to some slowing in jobs growth ahead, but not a collapse suggesting only a modest rise in unemployment. Trump’s tariff trade war shock is the main risk. https://t.co/4jzakBFzYq

Aust Mar emp +32k reversing only part of the -57.5k in Feb. Unemp 4.1% from 4% (revised from 4.1%). Nothing new here. Unemployment remains low providing no urgency for the RBA to cut but we still see falling inflation & trade shock uncertainty driving a cut in May (ABS charts) https://t.co/w7vX5VG4Od

Seek new job ads remain subdued but advertises wages picked up a bit in the March qtr. (Macquarie Macro Strategy charts) https://t.co/wKPBFLeDyx

NZ March qtr CPI inflation came in stronger than expected at 2.5%yoy up from 2.2%. However, core (ex food and energy) inflation and trimmed mean inflation continued to ease towards the 2% inflation target. https://t.co/ihuRMco7NG

UK March inflation was 2.6%yoy down from 2.8% with core also < exp at 3.4%. With signs of a softer jobs mkt adds to confidence of further BoE rate cuts later this yr The BoC left rates on hold as expected after 7 straight cuts with a neutral outlook with trade uncertainty. https://t.co/Zu7lv0VhKj

US Mar retail sales +1.4%m after +0.2%. Retail control that feeds into GDP was <exp at 0.4%. Likely boosted by recovery from bad weather, LA fires & tariff front running. Mar IP -0.3%m but manu +0.8% Apr NAHB index rose slightly to a still weak 40 (EvercoreISI & Bloomberg charts) https://t.co/689yDl93E6

Eurozone shares -3.9% US shares -2.2%, Nas -3.1% with Powell still in wait & see mode & saying “no” to “Fed put” as too many questions US 10 yr yld -6bp to 4.28% Oil +1.9% to $62.5 Gold +3.5% to $3343.1 Iron ore -0.1% to $99.6 Bitcoin $84.6 ASX futures -0.3% $A 0.647 w $US -0.7%

Its sad. I must admit I now even look at where the oranges come from in my local supermarket! Donald Trump tourism boycott: US economy to lose billions as tourists stay away https://t.co/o7J8ve9QYJ

Aust Dec qtr housing completions are running around 180000 a year, well below the Housing Accord target for 240000 a year. Fortunately approvals have picked up to a 195,000 pace but are still well below what’s needed. (Macquarie Macro Strategy chart) https://t.co/kKyHKS3VGs