Shawn Robbins

Founder and Owner at Box Office Theory

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Articles

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: 28 YEARS LATER ($41M+) and Pixar’s ELIO ($34M+); Disney’s LILO & STITCH ($130-145M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and DRAGON Pre-Sales Updates - Box Office Theory

6 days ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:28 Years Later is positioned as the likely horror centerpiece of summer 2025 with a prime mid-late June release date following what multiple outlets reported last December was the second-most viewed horror trailer online in history behind It: Chapter Two.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: THUNDERBOLTS*, a.k.a. THE NEW AVENGERS ($35M+) and SINNERS ($24M+) to Continue Reign Over a Relatively Quiet Mother’s Day Frame - Box Office Theory

1 week ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. A brief reprieve from major studio releases is on hand this weekend as the crop of late spring box office hits get a chance to stretch their legs before the early summer slate resumes in earnest over the next few weeks.
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON ($65M+) Live-Action Prospects, Sights on MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and FINAL DESTINATION’s Pre-Sales, & More - Box Office Theory

1 week ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:This week’s headline addition to the public forecast, How to Train Your Dragon, is positioned as one of the cornerstone family films of summer 2025.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: THUNDERBOLTS* ($76M+) Commences Summer Movie Season, But SINNERS’ Spring Breakout Is Far from Finished

2 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.substack.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website. Summer may not technically begin until mid-June with schools still in session for a few more weeks in most areas, but this is the weekend Hollywood for a quarter-century has unofficially used to kick off the four-month marathon haul of tentpoles.
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THUNDERBOLTS* Check-In ($67-70M+); Preliminary Outlooks for KARATE KID: LEGENDS ($45M+) and BALLERINA ($39M+)

2 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.substack.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website. Shawn Robbins @ Box Office Theory is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:Thunderbolts* imminent summer movie season kick-off received an encouraging jolt of marketing this week thanks to the social media review embargo lift from select critics.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: SINNERS to Repeat, Could Net #2 All-Time Horror Sophomore Weekend ($38-40M+); STAR WARS: REVENGE OF THE SITH ($20M+) and THE ACCOUNTANT 2 ($18M+) Continue Tracking Well - Box Office Theory

3 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Sinners lived up to the hype (and a little bit extra) on opening weekend, but the story is far from over as it looks to rival more records in its second weekend when the market overall looks healthy with a variety of openers and holdovers heading into the final stages of spring movie season.
5-Week Box Office Tracking: LILO & STITCH ($120M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - THE FINAL RECKONING ($75M+) and THE LAST RODEO ($8M+) Building Toward the Strongest Memorial Day Set Since 2013 - Box Office Theory

3 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Summer box office is around the corner, and our tracking for the week takes a peak at current forecasts for what may be one of the most important Memorial Day weekends for the industry in quite some time.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: SINNERS ($41M+) to Land Among Best Non-TWILIGHT Vampire Debuts; Will MINECRAFT Rule Again Over Easter?

4 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.substack.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website. Easter weekend has been known to deliver some good box office news in the past, and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners hopes to join that chorus of theatrical springtime successes.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: FINAL DESTINATION: BLOODLINES ($26M+) Early Prospects, SINNERS Update ($38M) and HURRY UP TOMORROW’s Outlook

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.substack.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website. Two releases slated for May 16 join this week’s public forecast, plus updates on other upcoming releases. Shawn Robbins @ Box Office Theory is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:Final Destination: Bloodlines is generating strong social media buzz since the release of its initial teaser and more recent official trailer.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: MINECRAFT ($75M+) to Continue ‘Chicken Jockey’ Craze; THE KING OF KINGS ($15M+) Eyes Biblical Breakout, THE AMATEUR, THE CHOSEN: LAST SUPPER Finale, DROP, and WARFARE Open - Box Office Theory

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. After a much needed box office breakout, A Minecraft Movie is set to rule again following its best-ever opening for a video game adaptation. The market sees a handful of notable counter-programmers, though. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:Minecraft is riding a wave of zeitgeist-cracking demand among Generations Z and Alpha on top of general family appeal. The “chicken jockey” meme has become a bona fide viral sensation among fans.

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Shawn Robbins @ShawnRobbinsWho

17 Apr 25

RT @BoxOfficeTheory: 5-Week Box Office Tracking: LILO & STITCH ($120M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – THE FINAL RECKONING ($75M+) and THE LA…

Shawn Robbins @ShawnRobbinsWho

16 Apr 25

RT @BoxOfficeTheory: Box Office Weekend Forecast: SINNERS ($41M+) to Land Among Best Non-TWILIGHT Vampire Debuts; Will MINECRAFT Rule Again…

Shawn Robbins @ShawnRobbinsWho

11 Apr 25

RT @BoxOfficeTheory: 5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: FINAL DESTINATION: BLOODLINES ($26M+) Early Prospects, SINNERS Update ($38M) a…

Shawn Robbins

Articles

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: 28 YEARS LATER ($41M+) and Pixar’s ELIO ($34M+); Disney’s LILO & STITCH ($130-145M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and DRAGON Pre-Sales Updates - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: THUNDERBOLTS*, a.k.a. THE NEW AVENGERS ($35M+) and SINNERS ($24M+) to Continue Reign Over a Relatively Quiet Mother’s Day Frame - Box Office Theory

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON ($65M+) Live-Action Prospects, Sights on MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and FINAL DESTINATION’s Pre-Sales, & More - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: THUNDERBOLTS* ($76M+) Commences Summer Movie Season, But SINNERS’ Spring Breakout Is Far from Finished

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THUNDERBOLTS* Check-In ($67-70M+); Preliminary Outlooks for KARATE KID: LEGENDS ($45M+) and BALLERINA ($39M+)

Box Office Weekend Forecast: SINNERS to Repeat, Could Net #2 All-Time Horror Sophomore Weekend ($38-40M+); STAR WARS: REVENGE OF THE SITH ($20M+) and THE ACCOUNTANT 2 ($18M+) Continue Tracking Well - Box Office Theory

5-Week Box Office Tracking: LILO & STITCH ($120M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - THE FINAL RECKONING ($75M+) and THE LAST RODEO ($8M+) Building Toward the Strongest Memorial Day Set Since 2013 - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: SINNERS ($41M+) to Land Among Best Non-TWILIGHT Vampire Debuts; Will MINECRAFT Rule Again Over Easter?

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: FINAL DESTINATION: BLOODLINES ($26M+) Early Prospects, SINNERS Update ($38M) and HURRY UP TOMORROW’s Outlook

Box Office Weekend Forecast: MINECRAFT ($75M+) to Continue ‘Chicken Jockey’ Craze; THE KING OF KINGS ($15M+) Eyes Biblical Breakout, THE AMATEUR, THE CHOSEN: LAST SUPPER Finale, DROP, and WARFARE Open - Box Office Theory

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