Shawn Robbins

Founder and Owner at Box Office Theory

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Articles

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: F1’s Bullish Momentum Continues, Early THE BAD GUYS 2 ($26M+) and THE NAKED GUN ($23M+) Outlooks, and a SUPERMAN Update - Box Office Theory

1 week ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:Joining public forecasts this week are the first major studio releases of August. The Bad Guys 2 is aiming to build on the success of its predecessor, which was one of the early success stories in COVID-era theatrical recovery when it debuted to $23.95 million during spring 2022 before legging out to $97.5 million domestically.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: 28 YEARS LATER ($26-30M+) and Pixar’s ELIO ($18-20M+) Open for Juneteenth as HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON Sets Sights on a #1 Repeat - Box Office Theory

1 week ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. 28 Years LaterBOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $26 – 34 millionTraditional Industry Tracking: ~$28 millionElioBOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $18 – 24 millionTraditional Industry Tracking: ~$25 millionKey Tracking Factors & Rationale:Both openers this weekend appear to have over-tracked in long range models, although Thursday’s Juneteenth certainly complicates projections.
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: SUPERMAN Pre-Sales Strong, But Emphasize Complex Range of Potential; F1 ($56M+) Continues to Impress; FANTASTIC FOUR ($125M+) Rolls Along - Box Office Theory

2 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Since we’ve covered a lot in the last few weeks, we’re back on a six-week outlook today with notes on the heart of summer’s line-up. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:The top story this week was arguably Superman‘s ticket on-sale beginning with strong early results.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON ($70M+) and MATERIALISTS ($11M+) Look Toward Healthy Starts on Father’s Day Frame

2 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS ($125-136M+) Eyes One of Marvel’s Best Late Summer Debuts; Early Outlooks for I KNOW WHAT YOU DID LAST SUMMER and SMURFS - Box Office Theory

3 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Yes, we’ve been looking at films six weeks from opening in theaters.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH Eyes Another #1 Frame as BALLERINA ($26-30M+) Opens and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE Commands IMAX for Another Weekend - Box Office Theory

3 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Will SUPERMAN ($154M-175M+) Soar to 2025’s Best Opening, Potential Milestones for DC and James Gunn?

4 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.substack.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears on Box Office Theory’s website. Shawn Robbins @ Box Office Theory is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:James Gunn’s Superman is positioned as one of this summer’s marquee tentpoles with a mid-July date that’s housed multiple franchise mega-performers in recent years.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE to Remain In Command, KARATE KID: LEGENDS ($15M+) Likely to Underperform vs. Expectations - Box Office Theory

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH ($116-135M 5-Day), Plus Significant Updates on KARATE KID: LEGENDS and BALLERINA

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:Jurassic World Rebirth is positioned as this year’s marquee Fourth of July tentpole in theaters. Scarlett Johansson’s takeover in the leading role, alongside an entirely new cast, comes with a mixed bag of expectations as this will essentially serve as a soft reboot of the franchise.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH ($190M-200M+ 4-Day) and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - THE FINAL RECKONING ($75M-80M+) Barreling Toward Record $325M+ Memorial Frame - Box Office Theory

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

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Shawn Robbins @ShawnRobbinsWho

20 Jun 25

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: F1’s Bullish Momentum Continues, Early THE BAD GUYS 2 ($26M+) and THE NAKED GUN ($23M+) Outlooks, and a SUPERMAN Update Newsletter: https://t.co/dwCrV9VcTl Website: https://t.co/7b8FLzvD6R #BoxOffice #F1TheMovie #Superman #TheNakedGun https://t.co/HIvf3bbK7r

Shawn Robbins @ShawnRobbinsWho

18 Jun 25

Box Office Weekend Forecast: 28 YEARS LATER ($26-30M+) and ELIO ($18-20M+) Open for Juneteenth as HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON Sets Sights on a #1 Repeat Newsletter: https://t.co/NXrJBqj4Fi Website: https://t.co/4nXz0UkqtQ #28YearsLater #Elio #HowToTrainYourDragon #BoxOffice https://t.co/IfABUg9btK

Shawn Robbins @ShawnRobbinsWho

13 Jun 25

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: SUPERMAN Pre-Sales Strong, But Emphasize Complex Range of Potential; F1 ($56M+) Continues to Impress; FANTASTIC FOUR ($125M+) Rolls Along Newsletter: https://t.co/lduCKd73PV Website: https://t.co/yOYnqc4KHb #Superman #F1TheMovie #FantasticFour https://t.co/WgXU5YrZjm

Shawn Robbins

Articles

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: F1’s Bullish Momentum Continues, Early THE BAD GUYS 2 ($26M+) and THE NAKED GUN ($23M+) Outlooks, and a SUPERMAN Update - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: 28 YEARS LATER ($26-30M+) and Pixar’s ELIO ($18-20M+) Open for Juneteenth as HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON Sets Sights on a #1 Repeat - Box Office Theory

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: SUPERMAN Pre-Sales Strong, But Emphasize Complex Range of Potential; F1 ($56M+) Continues to Impress; FANTASTIC FOUR ($125M+) Rolls Along - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON ($70M+) and MATERIALISTS ($11M+) Look Toward Healthy Starts on Father’s Day Frame

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS ($125-136M+) Eyes One of Marvel’s Best Late Summer Debuts; Early Outlooks for I KNOW WHAT YOU DID LAST SUMMER and SMURFS - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH Eyes Another #1 Frame as BALLERINA ($26-30M+) Opens and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE Commands IMAX for Another Weekend - Box Office Theory

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Will SUPERMAN ($154M-175M+) Soar to 2025’s Best Opening, Potential Milestones for DC and James Gunn?

Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE to Remain In Command, KARATE KID: LEGENDS ($15M+) Likely to Underperform vs. Expectations - Box Office Theory

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH ($116-135M 5-Day), Plus Significant Updates on KARATE KID: LEGENDS and BALLERINA

Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH ($190M-200M+ 4-Day) and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - THE FINAL RECKONING ($75M-80M+) Barreling Toward Record $325M+ Memorial Frame - Box Office Theory

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