Shmuel Rosner
Senior Political Editor at Jewish Journal (Los Angeles)
Contributing Opinion Columnist at The New York Times
המדד, הקיפוד והשועל, JPPI, מעריב, Jewish Journal. מכבד מחלוקת עניינית, חוסם גסות וטיפשות.
Articles
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1 week ago |
momentmag.com | Shmuel Rosner
What is the most important change Israel has undergone in the last 50 years? That’s easy. No—don’t look for it in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This conflict, sadly, is still very much with us. Back in the 1970s, and for many decades afterward, a common saying was that the situation was “unsustainable.” And yet, it has been sustained. Not much has changed in 50 years. No—the answer is also not peace with Egypt or Jordan, or the Abraham Accords.
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1 week ago |
jewishjournal.com | Shmuel Rosner
On Sunday, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, of Black Swan fame, nastily posted the following on X: “Five decades ago, Binyamin Saddam also underestimated the Iranians & how long it would take to end the war he started.”A polite translation would go as follows: When Saddam Hussein launched a war against Iran in the early 1980s – the Iran-Iraq War – he too hoped for a swift victory. Alas, the war dragged on for nearly a decade. That is, because the Iranians don’t surrender easily.
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2 weeks ago |
jewishjournal.com | Shmuel Rosner
At the heart of Israel’s assault on Iran lies a structured, solid logic. Israel made a decision that is easy to justify and easy to explain. If its military has the ability to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, or to bring about regime change in Tehran, then launching an attack is – without a doubt – the correct decision. And yet, as the Americans discovered in Iraq in the 2000s, and as Israel is reminded daily in Gaza, a rational, well-designed plan does not always produce the desired result.
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2 weeks ago |
jewishjournal.com | Shmuel Rosner
Let’s begin with the default: there will probably be no elections in Israel. At least not soon. For elections to happen, someone within the coalition must believe they have something to gain from them. A glance at the average polling numbers reveals a simple truth: no one in the current coalition has anything to gain. Unless, of course, the pleasure Itamar Ben-Gvir might derive from Bezalel Smotrich failing to cross the electoral threshold outweighs his aversion to opposition life.
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3 weeks ago |
jewishjournal.com | Shmuel Rosner
Israel is not paying enough attention to the world. The world is paying too much attention to Israel. That’s been a chronic problem, and it is exacerbated as the war in Gaza doesn’t seem to have an end date. The world – well, let’s not focus on the whole world, that includes countries like Indonesia and South Africa, but rather on some of Israel’s closer allies. When France criticizes Israel with its customary grandiosity, one could dismiss it as business as usual.
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״הן עם כלביא יקום״ - בהחלט. וגם: ״אל יתהלל חוגר כמפתח״.
מלחמות מסכמים בסוף. משל הסכין והדוב, והמתקפה הישראלית באיראן https://t.co/BAtqtTt6Pn
למה ישראל שינתה את דעתה? משל הסכין והדוב יפה גם למלחמה היזומה של ישראל באיראן. על הדוב אין מחלוקת. איראן היא דוב מסוכן. השאלה היא ישראל – האם בידי ישראל יש סכין, שבאמצעותו היא מנסה לצוד את הדוב, או שמא ישראל מצויידת ברובה, מה שמאפשר לה להניח שתוכל להכריע את החיה המשתוללת, הפצועה.
