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1 month ago | 
ielp.worldtradelaw.net | Simon Lester
I don't know if the USMCA is going to survive all the U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with the Canadian and Mexican retaliation. Will the agreement make it to the USMCA review next year? We'll see.
If we do make it though, I see a big problem in the form of the national security exception.
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1 month ago | 
ielp.worldtradelaw.net | Simon Lester
With all the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Canada and Mexico (under IEEPA already, under Section 232 soon, maybe under Section 301, and various other possibilities as well), and with the Canadian and Mexican tariff retaliation, how much is left of the USMCA? In economic terms, the creation of a virtually tariff-free trading area was the main benefit of NAFTA/USMCA. Without tariff-free North American trading, the agreement's impact is considerably reduced.
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1 month ago | 
ielp.worldtradelaw.net | Simon Lester
In last night's address to Congress, Trump said the following about reciprocal tariffs:
Other countries have used tariffs against us for decades, and now it's our turn to start using them against those other countries. On average, the European Union, China, Brazil, India, Mexico and Canada ... and countless other nations charge us tremendously higher tariffs than we charge them. It's very unfair. India charges us auto tariffs higher than 100%.
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1 month ago | 
ielp.worldtradelaw.net | Simon Lester
In my last post, I briefly mentioned this point about free speech from Trump's recent memo on "Defending American Companies and Innovators From Overseas Extortion and Unfair Fines and Penalties": The Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Commerce, and the United States Trade Representative shall investigate whether any act, policy, or practice of any country in the European Union or the United Kingdom has the effect of requiring or incentivizing the use or development of United States...
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2 months ago | 
ielp.worldtradelaw.net | Simon Lester
I have done a number of posts over the years on what U.S. trade officials mean when they talk about foreign digital taxes and regulations "discriminating" against U.S. companies. Are they talking about the intent of the measure or just its effect? On the latter, is a disparate impact on U.S. companies enough to qualify?
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2 months ago | 
ielp.worldtradelaw.net | Simon Lester
At a recent conference in Brussels, on a panel entitled "The Battleground for Global Economic Domination: What's Ahead for Europe, as the US and China Fight for Supremacy?", Adam Tooze of Columbia University and former U.S. Trade Rep. Katherine Tai had an exchange on the political impact of the Biden administration's economic policies that I thought people might find interesting. I am providing a partial transcript, but you may want to check out the video as well.
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2 months ago | 
ielp.worldtradelaw.net | Simon Lester
Jamieson Greer had his Senate nomination hearing yesterday. Here are a few exchanges that I found to be of interest.
Historical Examples of Successful Universal Tariffs
Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) asked a great question about the historical record of universal tariffs, which is something that Trump has talked about:
Wyden: I thought I'd start by asking you, can you give us an example ... in the country's history, where there were universal tariff hikes and where somehow the country benefited?
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2 months ago | 
ielp.worldtradelaw.net | Simon Lester
Jamieson Greer is Trump's nominee for U.S. Trade Representative, and he will have a Senate Confirmation hearing on Thursday, February 6. This is a great opportunity and honor for Jamieson, and along with it comes his own tag on the IELP blog. I hope he appreciates/tolerates this! If his predecessor Katherine Tai's experience is a good indication, this is the first post of many with that tag.
In anticipation of the confirmation hearing, I have come up with some questions for Jamieson.
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2 months ago | 
ielp.worldtradelaw.net | Simon Lester
In a recent interview, Chrystia Freeland -- former Canadian trade minister and finance minister, and currently a candidate for leader of the Liberal Party -- made the following argument involving a connection between global macro imbalances and the U.S. fiscal deficit (starts at around 11:20 of the video):
Scott Bessent is an incredibly sophisticated global economic thinker. He is a man who has a very well worked out view of the global macro, not just environment, but the global macro system.
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2 months ago | 
ielp.worldtradelaw.net | Simon Lester
I have a new piece for the Japan Economic Foundation that asks "Would the United States Join the MPIA?" This is from the conclusion:
The Appellate Body appointments crisis has dragged on for years now. The MPIA represents a solution for any WTO member that wants to ensure that binding dispute settlement is available, and many members have taken advantage of it. However, without US participation in the MPIA, WTO dispute settlement loses some of its luster and effectiveness.
