-
1 week ago | 
forbes.com | Simon Moore
AUSTIN, TEXAS - JUNE 04: A person shops for candy at a Target store on June 04, 2025 in Austin, ... More Texas. Retail sales declined 0.9% in the U.S. in May according to the Census Bureau. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)Getty Images Researchers tracking prices at major retailers are seeing prices trend up after tariffs, but at a relatively modest rate.
-
1 week ago | 
forbes.com | Simon Moore
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 18: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news ... More conference following the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on September 18, 2024 in Washington, DC. The Federal Reserve announced today that they will cut the central bank’s benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to a new range of 4.75%-5%.
-
3 weeks ago | 
forbes.com | Simon Moore
Ahead of its next interest rate decision on June 11, Federal Open Market Committee members are now in a blackout period. This limits public comments on monetary policy. Recent speeches suggest that June’s meeting will result in holding rates at their current 4.25% to 4.5% level. The CME FedWatch Tool, which gauges the implied forecast of fixed income markets implies it is almost a certainty that rates are held steady in June.
-
1 month ago | 
forbes.com | Simon Moore
The Consumer Price Index inflation report for May will be released on June 11. Inflation nowcasting from the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimates 0.12% headline monthly inflation for May and 0.23% when food and energy prices are removed. That would be similar to the 0.2% monthly CPI price increase reported in April for both headline and adjusted for food and energy..
-
1 month ago | 
forbesargentina.com | Amura CMS |Simon Moore
Simon Moore Los funcionarios de la Reserva Federal se preparan para una reunión decisiva, en la que las señales del mercado laboral y la evolución de los precios influirán en sus próximos pasos. Se espera que el Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) mantenga estables las tasas de interés en su próxima decisión del 18 de junio, según indican los mercados de renta fija.
-
1 month ago | 
forbes.com | Simon Moore
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming decision on June 18, according to fixed income markets. However, the meeting may be significant in shaping expectations for monetary policy for the remainder of 2025. That’s because policymakers will update expectations for the Summary of Economic Projections, which includes a forecast for interest rates. This may, in turn, depend on data on jobs and inflation in the weeks leading up to the meeting.
-
1 month ago | 
forbes.com | Simon Moore
Interest rates have been held steady as the Federal Open Market Committee have held three of its eight scheduled meetings of 2025. Markets expect that the FOMC will cut rates from their current level of 4.25% to 4.5% by December, probably to under 4%. However, any potential cuts are now expected for interest rates depending on how the economy performs.
-
1 month ago | 
forbes.com | Simon Moore
There’s a stark difference between recently positive economic news, and what forecasts, including President Trump’s suggest about tariffs. April’s jobs report was strong with a healthy 177,000 jobs added and unemployment stable at 4.2%. Rather than sharply rising prices, we’ve seen some slight disinflation to March 2025. The stock market has rallied sharply off April’s lows. This is good news and all implies a limited U.S. economic impact from tariffs for the initial months of 2025.
-
1 month ago | 
forbes.com | Simon Moore
April’s Consumer Price Index inflation report, scheduled for release on May 13, should may another relatively muted inflation reading according to nowcasts. That may support an interest rate cut in June. However, tariffs remain a wildcard. Nowcast Forecasts For InflationNowcasts project broadly 0.2% monthly inflation for the month of April, according to the models of the Cleveland Federal Reserve.
-
1 month ago | 
forbes.com | Simon Moore
The Federal Open Market Committee will next announce interest rates on May 7 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. Fixed income markets firmly expect short-term interest rates to remain in their current band of 4.25% to 4.5%. However, it is also likely that interest rates could then be cut at the subsequent FOMC decision on June 18, so fixed income markets will be watching for hints of that. If so, that may come either through the statement or the press conference.
