Simon Moore

Seattle

Senior Contributor at Forbes

Focused on the intersection of tech and investing.

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Articles

Tariffs: Hard And Soft Data Tell Two Very Different Stories, For Now

1 week ago | forbes.com | Simon Moore

There’s a stark difference between recently positive economic news, and what forecasts, including President Trump’s suggest about tariffs. April’s jobs report was strong with a healthy 177,000 jobs added and unemployment stable at 4.2%. Rather than sharply rising prices, we’ve seen some slight disinflation to March 2025. The stock market has rallied sharply off April’s lows. This is good news and all implies a limited U.S. economic impact from tariffs for the initial months of 2025.
What To Expect From April’s CPI Inflation Report

1 week ago | forbes.com | Simon Moore

April’s Consumer Price Index inflation report, scheduled for release on May 13, should may another relatively muted inflation reading according to nowcasts. That may support an interest rate cut in June. However, tariffs remain a wildcard. Nowcast Forecasts For InflationNowcasts project broadly 0.2% monthly inflation for the month of April, according to the models of the Cleveland Federal Reserve.
What To Look For From The Fed’s May Meeting

2 weeks ago | forbes.com | Simon Moore

The Federal Open Market Committee will next announce interest rates on May 7 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. Fixed income markets firmly expect short-term interest rates to remain in their current band of 4.25% to 4.5%. However, it is also likely that interest rates could then be cut at the subsequent FOMC decision on June 18, so fixed income markets will be watching for hints of that. If so, that may come either through the statement or the press conference.
Here’s What Early Data Shows On Tariffs’ Impact On The Economy

2 weeks ago | forbes.com | Simon Moore

As tariffs have been implemented and then adjusted it will take weeks for official economic data to fully capture the impact of tariffs on economic activity. That’s in part due to reporting lags in official economic data and because supply chains themselves take time. For example shipping freight by sea from China to the U.S. east coast can take several weeks. Plus for imported good to then be sold or used can take longer still.
Trump Removing Fed Chair Powell May Spook Markets, Here’s Why

3 weeks ago | forbes.com | Simon Moore

President Trump has made critical comments about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s performance in recent weeks. Trump wrote that, “there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.” Trump made these comments on social media on April 21.
Interest Rate Cut Unlikely At Fed’s May Meeting According To Markets

3 weeks ago | forbes.com | Simon Moore

The Federal Open Market Committee is not expected to adjust short-term interest rates on May 7. Fixed income markets project that a cut in interest rates is unlikely, expecting rates to remain at the current 4.25% to 4.5% range according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Similarly projection markets Kalshi and Polymarket give roughly a 9 in 10 chance that rates are held steady. However, a cut in June appears probable.
Here’s What The Market Expects The Fed To Do In 2025 After Tariffs

1 month ago | forbes.com | Simon Moore

Fixed income markets still project a handful of interest rate cuts from the Federal Open Market Committee in 2025 according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Those expectations have been relatively steady despite recent market volatility. Even though short-term rate expectations have not changed much, rates on longer term bonds have increased and the FOMC may alter their plan for rates as data comes in. Already policymakers’ forecasts for the U.S. economy in 2025 are evolving.
Schneller als der Tod

1 month ago | hoerzu.at | Simon Moore

» Sharon zieht immer noch schneller als die Kerle « Der große Schießwettbewerb in Redemption ist seit Jahren der Anlaufpunkt für viele Revolverhelden. Doch die junge Ellen ist nicht dort, um das Turnier zu gewinnen, sie will den Tod ihres Vaters rächen. Was für eine glückliche Fügung, dass der Mörder ihres Vaters ausgerechnet Veranstalter und Teilnehmer des Wettbewerbs ist...
Recession Fear Spikes On Tariff Announcement

1 month ago | forbes.com | Simon Moore

U.S. recession risks have risen sharply with the announcement of new tariffs. The chance of a U.S. recession is estimated at 56% by Polymarket and 60% by Kalshi, both relatively liquid prediction markets. Stock markets have also fallen with the S&P 500 currently 9% lower since the announcement of tariffs. That’s in addition to a weak start to 2025.
Fed Not Seen Cutting Rates At May Meeting

1 month ago | forbes.com | Simon Moore

Fixed income markets expect the Federal Open Market Committee to hold interest rates steady on May 7. That’s because inflation is “somewhat elevated” and the job market appears “solid” as stated in the FOMC’s March statement. Based on this reading of the economy, FOMC officials have shown patience in approaching further rate cuts. However, there is considerable economic uncertainty and survey data has become more pessimistic due, in part, to current and expected tariffs.