Sonal Desai Journalist Profile

Articles

Fixed Income Sector Views: Signs of progress, signals of caution

Dec 26, 2024 | advisoranalyst.com | Sonal Desai

by Sonal Desai, Ph.D., Chief Investment Officer, and Team, Franklin Templeton Fixed IncomeFranklin Templeton Fixed Income team feels optimistic about the US economy, driven by consumer spending, which should limit the need for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. However, policy changes by President-elect Trump, such as increased tariffs and immigration changes, could add inflationary pressures. Read more in their latest Sector Views.
On My Mind: 2025-Looking good, feeling good?

Dec 23, 2024 | advisoranalyst.com | Sonal Desai

by Sonal Desai, Ph.D., Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed IncomeEven with the uncertainty surrounding the new US administration’s economic policies, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai thinks the US economic outlook for 2025 remains robust, with upside risks to inflation. She thinks the end of the Fed’s easing cycle might be near, and warns that financial markets volatility will likely remain elevated. The year ahead looks both very promising and highly uncertain.
Fixed Income Macro Views: The return of (trade) policy uncertainty

Dec 5, 2024 | advisoranalyst.com | Sonal Desai

by Sonal Desai, Ph.D., Chief Investment Officer, and Team, Franklin Templeton Fixed IncomeFranklin Templeton Fixed Income economists explore the impact of proposed changes to both US tax and tariff policies and the implications for global economies. Central banks continue to address local conditions, with the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank further easing monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan is hiking its policy rate as it faces elevated inflation.
The Fed’s coming short, shallow rate-cutting cycle

Oct 31, 2024 | fundlibrary.com | Sonal Desai

Prolonged roller-coaster ride of market volatility The latest U.S. employment report provided an unequivocal verdict: The labor market is still strong, as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell stressed in the September press conference. Nonfarm payrolls blew past expectations, with over 250,000 jobs created in September and upward revisions to previous months. The unemployment rate edged back down to 4.1%, which by most estimates is below the natural rate.
On My Mind: For a few rate cuts more

Oct 7, 2024 | advisoranalyst.com | Sonal Desai

by Sonal Desai, Ph.D., Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed IncomeRecent data releases continue to point to a stubbornly resilient US economy. This supports Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai‚Äôs long-held view that the neutral rate of interest lies north of 4% and suggests that this monetary policy easing cycle will be shorter and shallower than many financial market participants expect.
Fed’s big rate cut not really all that dovish

Oct 1, 2024 | fundlibrary.com | Sonal Desai

Recession, ultra-low rates ruled out I find myself ambivalent when assessing last month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. I disagree with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) choice of a larger 50 basis points (bps) instead of a more moderate 25 bps, but I agree with most of the underlying assessment of the economy that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell laid out. The latter, I believe, is going to prove key to what lies ahead for policy rates and market moves.
Ecco le prossime manovre della Fed

Sep 29, 2024 | startmag.it | Sonal Desai

Una valutazione della riunione di settimana scorsa del Federal Open Market Committee mi lascia una sensazione ambivalente. Non sono d’accordo con la scelta della Federal Reserve (Fed) di procedere a un taglio più consistente di 50 punti base (pb) invece di uno più moderato di 25 pb, ma concordo con gran parte della valutazione dell’economia sottostante descritta dal presidente della banca Jerome Powell.
On My Mind: The first cut is the deepest

Sep 20, 2024 | advisoranalyst.com | Sonal Desai

by Sonal Desai, Ph.D., Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed IncomeWhere does the Fed go next after this weekâs 50 basis point interest-rate cut? Thoughts from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. I find myself ambivalent when assessing this weekâs Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Come va il deficit fiscale negli Stati Uniti

Aug 11, 2024 | startmag.it | Sonal Desai

Nella prima metà del periodo considerato, la politica fiscale statunitense ha mantenuto un profilo relativamente prudente, con un deficit medio di poco superiore all’1% del Pil. Poi la crisi finanziaria globale ha segnato un punto di svolta, innescando una fase di ripetute emergenze e di maggiore lassismo fiscale, che ha portato il deficit medio annuo al 6,5%.
The trouble with staying loose

Jul 18, 2024 | fundlibrary.com | Sonal Desai

Massive stimulus, huge deficits, and interest rates I What does the U.S. government’s persistently loose fiscal policy mean for the upcoming monetary policy easing cycle? And what does it mean for the U.S. Treasury yield outlook over the medium to long term? Let’s start with a snapshot of the U.S. federal government’s fiscal deficit for the past three decades.