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2 months ago | 
afr.com | Stephen MIller |Stephen Miller
The Reserve Bank is overachieving on inflation and should “break on through to the other side” to cut the policy rate in February.
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Jan 11, 2025 | 
afr.com | Stephen MIller |Stephen Miller
At its last meeting for 2024, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board seemed to indicate that it was contemplating a cut in the policy rate within six months. Weaker-than-expected private sector activity growth, together with softer wage increases, made the board say that it was “gaining some confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards target”. Loading...
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Nov 12, 2024 | 
americanbanker.com | Thomas M. Hoenig |Stephen MIller |Stephen Miller
To the editor:In a Nov. 1 BankThink piece, (Don't ask for lower capital requirements; demand better capital rules, Oct. 31) Allen Puwalski takes issue with an argument we made elsewhere concerning bank capital. However, his title describes our own point. A simpler, higher-equity-capital-to-total-asset ratio requirement would be better than current rules. Banks are not overcapitalized.
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Oct 26, 2024 | 
afr.com | Stephen MIller |Stephen Miller
Australian equity investors have enjoyed a strong year. Those returns, however, were led by the US sharemarket. To some extent, the returns reflect the vaunted “goldilocks” scenario: a resilient US economy in which inflation declines to an extent that the Federal Reserve can make significant rate cuts all without a serious disruption to economic growth. Loading...
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Aug 10, 2024 | 
afr.com | Stephen MIller |Stephen Miller
When reviewing markets halfway through the year, I was struck by just how durable the key investment themes had been. The consensus view at the start of 2024 was uber benign (commonly referred to as goldilocks) – a resilient economy in which inflation declines enough so that central banks can start cutting interest rates.
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Jun 29, 2024 | 
afr.com | Stephen MIller |Stephen Miller
Charles Blondin was a famous French tightrope walker best known for multiple crossings of Niagara Gorge. He did so with a number of theatrical variations, including being blindfolded, pushing a wheelbarrow, on stilts, carrying a man on his back and, bizarrely, sitting down midway while he cooked and ate an omelette.
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Jun 21, 2024 | 
onlinelibrary.wiley.com | Stephen MIller |Stephen Miller
Supporting Information Filename Description coep12657-sup-0001_DisclosureForms.pdf166.9 KB Supporting Information S1 REFERENCES & (2016) Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata. The Stata Journal, 16(3), 778–804. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x1601600314 , & (2013) Securitization without risk transfer. Journal of Financial Economics, 107(3), 515–536.
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Apr 27, 2024 | 
afr.com | Stephen MIller |Stephen Miller
But Bullock will continue to present as vigilant to “last mile” barriers to inflation returning to target. It is easy to overstate the parallels between the US and Australia, even if there are lessons to be learnt. For one thing, she might be casting a nervous eye to inflation developments in the US where inflation has proved “stickier” than anticipated. The March quarter CPI will only redouble that nervousness.
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Mar 27, 2024 | 
afr.com | Stephen MIller |Stephen Miller
Kahneman said that the brain reacts quickly and on the basis of incomplete information, often with unfortunate results. “People are designed to tell the best story possible,” he said in a 2012 interview with the American Psychological Association.
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Feb 3, 2024 | 
afr.com | Stephen MIller |Stephen Miller
The moderation in inflation in the December quarter partially reflects the impact of one-off subsidies such as for energy, childcare and rent assistance. As these effects wash out, and annual and administered price adjustments are reflected in the March quarter, there may be some stalling on the disinflation progress.
