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1 week ago | 
almendron.com | Thomas Juneau
The current confrontation between Iran and Israel is shifting the balance of power in the Middle East. For years, it was a widely held view among analysts that there was a loose balance of terror between Iran and Israel, whereby Israel’s conventional military advantage was more or less checked by Iran’s unconventional assets, especially its missile and drone programmes and its support for violent non-state actors throughout the Middle East.
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1 week ago | 
chathamhouse.org | Thomas Juneau
Skip to main content As the US considers whether or not to join Israeli strikes on Iran, a new balance of power is emerging in the Middle East – and it is tilting heavily in favour of Israel. Expert comment Published 19 June 2025 4 minute READ The current confrontation between Iran and Israel is shifting the balance of power in the Middle East.
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1 month ago | 
onlinelibrary.wiley.com | Thomas Juneau
The year 2024 did not start off badly for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Its rival Israel had been caught off guard by the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023. For Israel, the failure to prevent the attack projected weakness and suggested a major intelligence and policy failure, on top of the political dysfunction already gripping the country.
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1 month ago | 
theglobeandmail.com | Thomas Juneau |Vincent Rigby |Stephanie Carvin
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1 month ago | 
breakingdefense.com | Thomas Juneau
As Canada’s new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has repeated several times, relations between Canada and the United States as we used to know them do not exist anymore. This poses potentially existential questions for Canada’s security and prosperity, given how dependent the country is on its southern neighbor.
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2 months ago | 
warontherocks.com | Thomas Juneau
In his 2023 article, “Negotiating Saudi Arabia’s Defeat and the Houthi Victory in Yemen,” Thomas Juneau of the University of Ottawa assessed that the Saudi-Yemen ceasefire would “not lead to a sustainable peace.” Two years on, as tensions in the Middle East are higher than ever, we asked him to revisit his argument. Image: U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl.
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Mar 26, 2025 | 
brookings.edu | Thomas Juneau
Editor's note: This essay is part of the “Development, governance, and security in the Middle East: Obstacles and opportunities” project, a series examining how governance failures in the Middle East and North Africa have hindered stable development and human security, in partnership with the Japan International Cooperation Agency.
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Mar 20, 2025 | 
almendron.com | Farea al-Muslimi |Thomas Juneau
US strikes against the Houthis in Yemen on 15 March were the heaviest since joint US/UK air operations began in January 2024. They were also the first under the new administration of President Donald Trump. Sending a clear message to Tehran, the president said afterwards that ‘every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon…as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of Iran’. The attacks, and Trump’s explicit association of the Houthis with Iran, were not surprising.
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Mar 13, 2025 | 
areion24.news | Thomas Juneau
Avec la consolidation de leur puissance au niveau domestique, il était inévitable que les houthistes cherchent à jouer un rôle plus important au-delà des frontières du Yémen. Ainsi, les dernières années ont été marquées par leur émergence en tant que puissance régionale incontournable. Cela s’est d’abord manifesté dans leurs relations avec l’Arabie saoudite et les Émirats arabes unis.
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Mar 13, 2025 | 
areion24.news | Thomas Juneau
La guerre entre Israël et le Hamas qui a éclaté en octobre 2023 a permis aux houthistes d’accélérer leur émergence sur la scène régionale. Basés à l’origine dans le nord-ouest du Yémen, ils ont joué de l’instabilité du pays depuis 2011 pour étendre leur territoire, prendre la capitale, Sanaa, en 2014, tout en résistant à l’intervention de l’Arabie saoudite lancée en 2015.
