Tim Cooper

England

Senior Markets Analyst at Market News International

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timesofmalta.com

Articles

CANADA DATA: Manufacturing Sales Set To Pull Back After Strong January

1 month ago | marketnews.com | Tim Cooper

The advance estimate of Canadian manufacturing sales shows a 0.2% M/M nominal decline in February, led by falls in food / petroleum and coal products, per StatCan. If confirmed, it would mark the weakest reading / first decline (in nominal terms) since September.
FED: Atlanta's Bostic Sees One Less 2025 Rate Cut Amid Slow Inflation Progress

1 month ago | marketnews.com | Tim Cooper

Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic (non-2025 FOMC voter, leans hawk) says in a Bloomberg interview that he has reduced his 2025 rate cut expectations to 1 in March's economic projections versus 2 previously, "because I think we will see inflation be very bumpy", and delayed inflation progress warranted pushing back the path to neutral rates. This puts him among the 8 most hawkish FOMC members for 2025 (of 19 participants, 4 saw 1 cut, 4 saw none).
BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: Short Lean Extends Across Contracts

1 month ago | marketnews.com | Tim Cooper

MNI is the leading provider of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows

1 month ago | marketnews.com | Tim Cooper

Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24. That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund". This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
US DATA: Current Account Deficit Set To Widen Further In Early 2025

1 month ago | marketnews.com | Tim Cooper

The Q4 current account deficit reported this week was much smaller than expected at $303.9B ($330B consensus), unexpectedly narrowing from $310.3B in Q3. This came despite a widening of the net trade deficit to $250B (widest since Q2 2022), from $236B prior as the goods deficit jumped $17B on the quarter to $326B.
CANADA DATA: Retail Sales Pulling Back To Start The Year

1 month ago | marketnews.com | Tim Cooper

Retail sales fell 0.4% M/M SA in February per the StatCan flash estimate, which if confirmed in the final reading would mark a second consecutive pullback after -0.6% in January. For January, for which detailed stats were released, core sales (ex-autos/gas) fell 0.2% M/M, only a modest pullback after December's outsized 2.9% rise. In a more substantial reversal, real retail sales fell 1.1% M/M, vs 2.5% growth in December.
MNI US Macro Weekly: Inertia Takes Hold

1 month ago | marketnews.com | Tim Cooper |Chris Harrison

The past week’s data did little to clarify the economic outlook amid major uncertainty. Download the Full Report here Executive Summary:Fed policymakers’ updated economic projections released this week summed up the uncertainty looming over the economic outlook: the FOMC left their rate cut outlook steady despite upping inflation / lowering growth forecasts (while flagging risks that those revisions didn’t go far enough).
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Steeper With Gilts Underperforming

1 month ago | marketnews.com | Tim Cooper

The UK and German curves steepened Friday, with Gilts underperforming Bunds. Core FI was a little stronger in early trade, with US equities leading a global stock retreat. Stocks would bounce in mid-afternoon Europe trade, pulling Bunds and Gilts back from the session's best levels.
OPTIONS: Call Spreads / Condor Buying In European Rates To Close The Week

1 month ago | marketnews.com | Tim Cooper

MNI is the leading provider of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.
FED: Gov Waller Saw No Need To Taper, As Standing Repo Ops Underline His Point

1 month ago | marketnews.com | Tim Cooper

Fed Governor Waller explains his dissent against the decision at the March meeting to taper the runoff of Treasuries by $20B a month to $5B, effectively cutting overall balance sheet runoff in half to $20B a month (MBS are running off at $15B/month). He writes: "Slowing further or stopping redemptions of securities holdings will be appropriate as we get closer to an ample level of reserves.