Tim Culpan

Taipei

Tech Columnist, formerly BBG Opinion. Award winning journalist. Ironman. Pilot. Chipwatcher. 中文, Java, , Python, C. Masters in CS. Opinions mine. #NoMeatAthlete

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Articles

How a TSMC Tax Would be a FAFO Move for the US

2 months ago | culpium.com | Tim Culpan

Good Morning from Taipei, I think it’s highly probable that TSMC Arizona will be spun off due to US government pressure. It would initially be 100% controlled by TSMC, but eventually could get listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ with TSMC HQ’s stake slowly declining. The business model would probably be some kind of technology and management licensing deal because I see no hope for TSMC Arizona doing leading-edge process R&D on its own.
How a TSMC Tax Would be a FAFO Move for the US

2 months ago | open.substack.com | Tim Culpan

Good Morning from Taipei, I think it’s highly probable that TSMC Arizona will be spun off due to US government pressure. It would initially be 100% controlled by TSMC, but eventually could get listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ with TSMC HQ’s stake slowly declining. The business model would probably be some kind of technology and management licensing deal because I see no hope for TSMC Arizona doing leading-edge process R&D on its own.
Deepseek is More Wall Street Than Silicon Valley

2 months ago | culpium.com | Tim Culpan

Good Morning from Taipei,I get the sense that many people have spent more time opining about Deepseek than actually reading and trying to understand the company and its recent developments. Rather than weigh in with yet another quicktake, I decided to step away until the noise died down. Now seems as good a time as any to explain what I think most people have missed. First, I think the obsession with Deepseek’s nationality misses the most important characteristic of the company.
TSMC to Make Chips for Cryptominer Bitdeer at New US Fab

Jan 16, 2025 | culpium.com | Tim Culpan

Good Morning from Taipei,TSMC is set to begin production of chips for Bitcoin chip mining company Bitdeer in Arizona this quarter, according to my sources. Six months after planning, then pulling, production of chips for fellow Chinese crypto mining company Bitmain in Arizona, the Taiwanese company is pushing ahead with manufacturing chips for a different China-connected high-performance computing client at a US federally funded facility.
TSMC Earnings Show AI Is Lifting All Boats

Jan 16, 2025 | culpium.com | Tim Culpan

Good Evening from Taipei,I have an important scoop coming in the next few hours. But first, I want to talk about TSMC earnings and outlook following its 2024 full-year investor conference Thursday afternoon. Please subscribe to get this coming scoop. In addition to the past (earnings), TSMC spoke about the future (outlook). Management is quite formulaic in how it presents all this information, which makes covering it quite a delight: there’s a reason why its IR team garners accolades.
Apple Doubles Down with Second Chip at TSMC Arizona

Jan 7, 2025 | culpium.com | Tim Culpan

Good Morning from Taipei,I’ve finally landed on a name for this publication: Culpium. Further publishing announcements at the end. My last post was about TSMC, and my next post will also be about TSMC after earnings on Thursday January 16, but there’s some updates I decided couldn’t wait. TSMC Arizona has picked up a second Apple product.
Bots vs Phones in Two Charts

Jan 1, 2025 | culpium.com | Tim Culpan

Good Morning from Taipei,This week’s earnings from TSMC provided a wealth of data. Yesterday I wrote about what I see as being warning signs for Apple. TSMC Earnings Show Apple's Desperate PlightThe flip side of that equation is high-performance computing. Not all HPC chips are AI chips — the category includes both GPUs and CPUs — but clearly the boom in generative AI added to earlier momentum which came from cloud services and streaming.
TSMC Planned to Make Bitmain Chips in the US

Jan 1, 2025 | culpium.com | Tim Culpan

Good Evening from Taipei,TSMC made plans to commence manufacturing of ASICs for Chinese chip designer Bitmain in Arizona by early next year, my sources tell me. This past Summer, management was even in the advanced stages of pre-production for the Beijing-based customer, I am told. At the time, Apple had already been locked in as the first customer for the new US fab. As I reported last month, the iPhone maker’s A16 SoC is now in production.
Introducing "The World's Smallest Superpower"

Jan 1, 2025 | culpium.com | Tim Culpan

Good Evening from Taipei,Thanks for joining me on this journey. Now that I am able to write independently, I can share with you some news about the next major project I’m working on. I recently signed a deal with a US publisher to write a book on Taiwan’s unique place in the world. The World’s Smallest SuperpowerBy Tim CulpanThat superpower is, of course, Taiwan.
China's Faltering Tech Economy in Two Charts

Jan 1, 2025 | culpium.com | Tim Culpan

Good Morning from Taipei,China’s latest economic growth figures raise doubts about whether the country will hit official targets for the full year. Year-to-date GDP climbed 4.8% through September, so it’ll take a big final quarter to hit the 5% goal. The most likely way for Chinese policymakers and industry leaders to stretch the numbers will be through pump-priming production. It’s quicker, more direct, and more controllable than doling out money to spur consumption.