Timothy Rahill

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Articles

Listen: Credit caught in the tariff turmoil

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Rebecca Byrne |Timothy Rahill

President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on 2 April, a 90-day pause for most countries yet with escalating tariffs on China, exemptions on tech products from China, and later, news that these exemptions may only be temporary, have left investors deeply unsettled. While much of the focus last week was on soaring Treasury yields and falling stock markets, corporate bonds were hit hard, too.
US dollar credit supply: More Reverse Yankee and Yankee supply

Jan 9, 2025 | think.ing.com | Timothy Rahill

Credit US dollar credit supply: More Reverse Yankee and Yankee supply USD corporate supply reached $812bn in 2024, marking the highest annual levels since 2020 Executive summary High USD corporate supply totals US$812bn in 2024, the second-highest on record USD corporate supply reached $812bn in 2024, marking the highest annual levels since 2020. We expect USD corporate supply will increase to US$850bn in 2025, a bumper year but not record-breaking like 2020.
US Dollar Credit Supply: Record-breaking supply in 2024

Dec 4, 2024 | think.ing.com | Timothy Rahill

US elections kept corporate supply in November slightly lowIn November, USD corporate supply reached US$40bn, nearly matching the levels in October but significantly lower than the figures observed in previous Novembers. This is unsurprising as there were more limited issuance windows due to the US election. YTD supply totalled US$787bn, the highest volume since the record-breaking numbers of 2020.
US Dollar Credit Supply: We expect higher USD supply in 2025

Nov 11, 2024 | think.ing.com | Timothy Rahill

Credit US Dollar Credit Supply: We expect higher USD supply in 2025 We expect USD corporate supply to increase to US$850bn in 2025, making it a bumper year but not record-breaking We forecast US$850bn in USD corporate supply in 2025 We expect USD corporate supply to increase to US$850bn in 2025, making it a bumper year but not record-breaking like 2020. Increased M&A activity and higher CAPEX add to the higher redemptions scheduled as the cost of debt falls.
Euro Credit Supply: Another year of hefty EUR supply in 2025

Nov 11, 2024 | think.ing.com | Timothy Rahill

• We forecast an increase in EUR corporate supply in 2025 to €400bn, with greater CAPEX and M&A activity adding to increasing redemptions. This is above the €360bn expected for 2024 and up significantly on the €300bn seen in 2023. This will also make it the heaviest year on record apart from the Covid-19-induced supply rush of 2020. Net supply is therefore also rising - to €124bn, the highest it’s been since 2021. This plays a part in the expected deterioration of technicals.
Listen: Credit Outlook 2025

Nov 8, 2024 | think.ing.com | Rebecca Byrne |Timothy Rahill |Suvi Platerink Kosonen |Jesse Norcross

Credit markets reacted positively to the outcome of the US election, with spreads narrowing across the board. But the longer-term implications are more complicated. ING's Global Head of Sector Research Jeroen van den Broek and Credit Strategist Tim Rahill predict a difficult year ahead for credit, with a Trump presidency one of 25 reasons to be cautious in 2025.
Live event: ING Outlook - Credit Markets in 2025

Nov 1, 2024 | think.ing.com | Timothy Rahill |Suvi Platerink Kosonen |Jesse Norcross

Date: 7 November 2024Time: 10:00 GMT/11:00 CETThe event will last for 45 minutes, with Q&A at the end. Speakers:Jeroen van den Broek, Global Head of Sector ResearchTimothy Rahill, Credit StrategistSuvi Platerink Kosonen, Senior Sector Strategist, FinancialsJesse Norcross, Senior Sector Strategist, Real EstateRebecca Byrne, Senior Editor/Supervisory Analyst (moderator)ING Outlook: Other events in this webinar series (All times CET)13 November (16:30) FX markets after the US election.
US Dollar Credit Supply: Strong supply continues

Oct 8, 2024 | think.ing.com | Timothy Rahill

Credit US Dollar Credit Supply: Strong supply continues Large levels of supply continue in September, but a slowdown is now expected TMT sector leads September supply, up 82% Corporate supply reached US$87.5bn in September, a level similar to the previous month. It is also approximately double the amounts seen in the two previous years (US$43-47bn). On a YTD basis, supply sits at US$709bn, still ahead of the previous two years.
Euro Credit Supply: Expect a slowdown from here

Oct 8, 2024 | think.ing.com | Timothy Rahill

Credit Euro Credit Supply: Expect a slowdown from here Supply was strong in September, but we expect a slowdown from here Corporate supply rises in September Corporate supply pencilled in €42bn in September, a slight increase on the past two years but in line with most other previous years. YTD corporate supply has reached a substantial €326bn, already surpassing the year-end total levels of some previous years.
Watch: Why green bonds are set to bounce back next year

Oct 4, 2024 | think.ing.com | Timothy Rahill

There's been a noticeable decline in the number of green bonds issued over the past three years. Looking at just the second quarters, there were $511bn issued in 2021 and that fell to just $367bn this year. ESG-related loans and bonds finance projects that have a positive environmental impact. ING's Credit Strategist, Timothy Rahill, says there are reasons why we've seen such a big drop. And he's confident the market will improve in 2025.