Vasco Grilo

Dec 16, 2024 | lesswrong.com | Vasco Grilo

This is a linkpost for How should we analyse survey forecasts of AI timelines? by Tom Adamczewski, which was published on 16 December 2024. Below are some quotes from Tom's post, and a bet I would be happy to make with people whose AI timelines are much shorter than those of the median AI expert. Read at AI ImpactsThe Expert Survey on Progress in AI (ESPAI) is a large survey of AI researchers about the future of AI, conducted in 2016, 2022, and 2023.

Jun 4, 2024 | forum.effectivealtruism.org | Vasco Grilo |James Ozden |John Salter

78 % of my donations so far have gone to the Long-Term Future Fund (LTFF), which mainly supports AI safety interventions. However, I have become increasingly sceptical about the value of existential risk mitigation, and currently think the best interventions are in the area of animal welfare. As a result, I realised it made sense for me to arrange a bet with someone very worried about AI in order to increase my donations to animal welfare interventions.

Nov 19, 2023 | forum.effectivealtruism.org | Ariel Simnegar |Emily Oehlsen |Will Aldred |Vasco Grilo

The evidence that animal welfare dominates in neartermism is strong. Open Philanthropy (OP) should scale up its animal welfare allocation over several years to approach a majority of OP's neartermist grantmaking. If OP disagrees, they should practice reasoning transparency by clarifying their views:How much weight does OP's theory of welfare place on pleasure and pain, as opposed to nonhedonic goods?

Jul 18, 2023 | forum.effectivealtruism.org | Vasco Grilo

Since writing The Precipice, one of my aims has been to better understand how reducing existential risk compares with other ways of influencing the longterm future. Helping avert a catastrophe can have profound value due to the way that the short-run effects of our actions can have a systematic influence on the long-run future. But it isn't the only way that could happen.

Apr 29, 2023 | forum.effectivealtruism.org | Ariel Simnegar |Harrison Durland |Vasco Grilo

Disclaimer: this is not a project from Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED). Global warming increases the risk from climate change. This “has the potential to result in—and to some extent is already resulting in—increased natural disasters, increased water and food insecurity, and widespread species extinction and habitat loss”.