William Reinsch Journalist Profile

Articles

Premature Sighs of Relief

2 months ago | csis.org | William Reinsch |Scholl Chair

One of the main activities at CSIS is trying to figure out what is going to happen next. Our readers want to know that. Our donors want to know that, and, of course, reporters want to know that. Like many of my colleagues, I spend a good bit of my time trying to predict the future. Of course, the future is unknowable, so the best we can do is make informed guesses. The nice thing about the job is that nobody remembers if you’re wrong.
Things Are Not Always What We Are Told: Lessons from the First Tariff War

Jan 13, 2025 | csis.org | William Reinsch |Scholl Chair

It has become routine for every presidential challenger to ask voters, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” Donald Trump asked that question in last year’s election and then answered it himself with a resounding “no.” The voters agreed, and he won the election. But are we really worse off than we were four years ago? The voters’ perception was that we are, but it’s probably too soon to say definitively.
Silicon Island: Assessing Taiwan’s Importance to U.S. Economic Growth and Security

Jan 10, 2025 | csis.org | William Reinsch |Jack Whitney

The IssueTaiwan remains a critical partner to U.S. economic interests given its contributions to global advanced technology supply chains. Taiwan’s inputs in the semiconductor supply chain have enabled U.S. companies to maximize their productive efficiency. As the next administration considers how to manage the United States’ relationship with the island nation, officials will need to remember that the partnership has been, and will remain, a feature of supporting U.S. national security.
Valedictory-or Obituary?

Jan 6, 2025 | csis.org | William Reinsch |Scholl Chair

As the Biden administration comes to an end, it is time for a closing comment on its trade policy. I’ve struggled as to whether to call it a valedictory or an obituary, the latter a much less positive term, but in the end, I decided to call it both. Looking at the bigger picture, I believe that when future historians look back on the Biden era, they will regard him as a transformative president with an impressive record of legislative accomplishments reminiscent of Lyndon Johnson’s.
Revenue Implications of Tax Cut and Jobs Act Provisions in 2025

Dec 18, 2024 | csis.org | Byrd rule |Sanam Rasool |William Reinsch |Thibault Denamiel

As the U.S. presidential and congressional election frenzy has subsided, policymakers face critical decisions regarding the fate of tax provisions enacted through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. The bill, introduced by then-representative Kevin Brady (R-TX) on November 2, 2017, with 24 Republican cosponsors, represented the most significant tax policy overhaul since the Reagan administration’s 1986 reform, introducing sweeping changes to individual, business, and international taxation.
Regulatio Ad Absurdum

Dec 9, 2024 | csis.org | William Reinsch |Scholl Chair

I complained last week about the frustrations of getting caught up in perpetually responding to the latest Trumpian trade rant at the risk of failing to finish my regular work. This week I will avoid that trap by ignoring Trump completely and focusing instead on something going on in Europe. Rest assured, I will return to addressing U.S. trade policy shortly.
Great Expectations

Nov 25, 2024 | csis.org | William Reinsch |Scholl Chair

Speculation about Donald Trump’s possible trade actions is running wild right now, and I am going to succumb to the temptation of talking about some of them. Doing so is fraught with peril, largely because Trump is notoriously unpredictable and perfectly happy to contradict people who work for him. Thus, anything that anybody predicts needs to be taken with a large helping of salt.
Immigration Policy Solutions to Shortages in Critical Sectors of the U.S. Economy

Nov 25, 2024 | csis.org | Thibault Denamiel |William Reinsch |Jason Schenker

The IssueCritical sectors of the U.S. economy remain badly understaffed. Additionally, because of U.S. industrial policies creating positions in targeted industries and an aging workforce tied to specific career paths, shortages are set to become more dire in the medium term. This report counters the argument that if more people enter the United States, fewer resources will be left for those already here.
Rethinking the Wassenaar Minus One Strategy

Nov 25, 2024 | csis.org | William Reinsch |Altynay Junusova

Efforts to recalibrate the Wassenaar Arrangement (WA) into a more selective and cohesive ‘Wassenaar minus one’ coalition—potentially excluding Russia—reflect the growing need for the United States, its allies, and technology firms to find common ground on export control measures. In 2024, individual Wassenaar member states began implementing their own controls on critical technologies outside the WA. This is the early step toward a new regime.
The Double-Edged Sword of Semiconductor Export Controls: Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment

Nov 19, 2024 | csis.org | William Reinsch |Jack Whitney |Matthew Schleich

Export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) represent a key focus of ongoing U.S. government efforts to “choke off” China’s access to leading-edge semiconductors. The United States, along with allies such as the Netherlands and Japan, is a global leader in production and R&D for chipmaking tools.