Blue Tent

Oct 28, 2024 | bluetent.us | David Callahan

With the polls tied and eight days to go till the election, Harris has a clear path to victory. But there’s more that donors can do to help her get to 270. The most likely way that Harris wins is by substantially overperforming among white women while matching Biden’s 2020 margins among non-college whites, Blacks, Latinos, and young people. Let’s walk through how Harris can achieve her goals with each of these demographic groups and where last-minute donations can still make a difference.

Oct 21, 2024 | bluetent.us | David Callahan

The must-win state of Pennsylvania, where white working-class voters make up nearly half of the electorate, is tough territory for Kamala Harris. To win here, she must match “Scranton Joe” Biden’s 2020 margins in rural areas and with non-college whites while building on recent Democratic gains with Pennsylvania’s college-educated voters. But Harris must do one other thing to carry the Keystone State, which is absolutely essential: Catalyze strong Black turnout and win these voters overwhelmingly.

Oct 15, 2024 | bluetent.us | David Callahan

I wrote in August that Kamala Harris still had a lot of work to do to bolster her standing among non-college whites. Her goal is not to win these voters; it's to limit her losses—at the very least, matching Biden's 2020 performance, when he won 37% of non-college whites. But Harris is still struggling here, with the most recent national New York Times/Siena poll showing her with 33% support among non-college whites—below Hillary Clinton's performance when she narrowly lost in 2016.

Oct 11, 2024 | bluetent.us | David Callahan

After signing the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Lyndon Johnson told his aide Bill Moyers, “I think we may have lost the South for your lifetime—and mine.” A more accurate prediction would have been that Democrats had lost white people. Even as candidates like Obama and Biden have won states like North Carolina and Georgia, no Democratic presidential nominee has won a majority of the white vote since 1964.

Oct 9, 2024 | bluetent.us | David Callahan

I hope you've appreciated that this website doesn’t traffic in fear-mongering. I don’t think inciting panic is a helpful way to raise money. But glib cheerleading isn’t helpful, either. We must be clear-eyed and focused on what it will take to win the election—and, by contrast, how we could lose. Today, I want to take a walk on the dark side and look at how Harris could fall short—and what donors can still do to reduce that possibility.