Box Office Theory

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Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH Eyes Another #1 Frame as BALLERINA ($26-30M+) Opens and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE Commands IMAX for Another Weekend - Box Office Theory

3 days ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE to Remain In Command, KARATE KID: LEGENDS ($15M+) Likely to Underperform vs. Expectations - Box Office Theory

1 week ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH ($116-135M 5-Day), Plus Significant Updates on KARATE KID: LEGENDS and BALLERINA

2 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:Jurassic World Rebirth is positioned as this year’s marquee Fourth of July tentpole in theaters. Scarlett Johansson’s takeover in the leading role, alongside an entirely new cast, comes with a mixed bag of expectations as this will essentially serve as a soft reboot of the franchise.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH ($190M-200M+ 4-Day) and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - THE FINAL RECKONING ($75M-80M+) Barreling Toward Record $325M+ Memorial Frame - Box Office Theory

2 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: F1 ($47M+) and M3GAN 2.0 ($16-21M) Early Prospects; LILO & STITCH and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE Continue Pacing for Historic Memorial Day Frame - Box Office Theory

3 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:F1‘s trailer launches have generated great traction (no pun intended) across social channels in recent months as excitement among Formula One racing and action movie fans begins to escalate for the summer tentpole.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: FINAL DESTINATION: BLOODLINES ($36M+), THUNDERBOLTS*, SINNERS and HURRY UP TOMORROW to Present a Formidable Calm Before Memorial Day’s Storm - Box Office Theory

3 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: 28 YEARS LATER ($41M+) and Pixar’s ELIO ($34M+); Disney’s LILO & STITCH ($130-145M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and DRAGON Pre-Sales Updates - Box Office Theory

4 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:28 Years Later is positioned as the likely horror centerpiece of summer 2025 with a prime mid-late June release date following what multiple outlets reported last December was the second-most viewed horror trailer online in history behind It: Chapter Two.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: THUNDERBOLTS*, a.k.a. THE NEW AVENGERS ($35M+) and SINNERS ($24M+) to Continue Reign Over a Relatively Quiet Mother’s Day Frame - Box Office Theory

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. A brief reprieve from major studio releases is on hand this weekend as the crop of late spring box office hits get a chance to stretch their legs before the early summer slate resumes in earnest over the next few weeks.
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON ($65M+) Live-Action Prospects, Sights on MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and FINAL DESTINATION’s Pre-Sales, & More - Box Office Theory

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:This week’s headline addition to the public forecast, How to Train Your Dragon, is positioned as one of the cornerstone family films of summer 2025.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: SINNERS to Repeat, Could Net #2 All-Time Horror Sophomore Weekend ($38-40M+); STAR WARS: REVENGE OF THE SITH ($20M+) and THE ACCOUNTANT 2 ($18M+) Continue Tracking Well - Box Office Theory

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Sinners lived up to the hype (and a little bit extra) on opening weekend, but the story is far from over as it looks to rival more records in its second weekend when the market overall looks healthy with a variety of openers and holdovers heading into the final stages of spring movie season.

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Box Office Theory

Outlet metrics

Articles

Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH Eyes Another #1 Frame as BALLERINA ($26-30M+) Opens and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE Commands IMAX for Another Weekend - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE to Remain In Command, KARATE KID: LEGENDS ($15M+) Likely to Underperform vs. Expectations - Box Office Theory

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH ($116-135M 5-Day), Plus Significant Updates on KARATE KID: LEGENDS and BALLERINA

Box Office Weekend Forecast: LILO & STITCH ($190M-200M+ 4-Day) and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - THE FINAL RECKONING ($75M-80M+) Barreling Toward Record $325M+ Memorial Frame - Box Office Theory

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: F1 ($47M+) and M3GAN 2.0 ($16-21M) Early Prospects; LILO & STITCH and MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE Continue Pacing for Historic Memorial Day Frame - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: FINAL DESTINATION: BLOODLINES ($36M+), THUNDERBOLTS*, SINNERS and HURRY UP TOMORROW to Present a Formidable Calm Before Memorial Day’s Storm - Box Office Theory

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: 28 YEARS LATER ($41M+) and Pixar’s ELIO ($34M+); Disney’s LILO & STITCH ($130-145M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and DRAGON Pre-Sales Updates - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: THUNDERBOLTS*, a.k.a. THE NEW AVENGERS ($35M+) and SINNERS ($24M+) to Continue Reign Over a Relatively Quiet Mother’s Day Frame - Box Office Theory

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON ($65M+) Live-Action Prospects, Sights on MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and FINAL DESTINATION’s Pre-Sales, & More - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: SINNERS to Repeat, Could Net #2 All-Time Horror Sophomore Weekend ($38-40M+); STAR WARS: REVENGE OF THE SITH ($20M+) and THE ACCOUNTANT 2 ($18M+) Continue Tracking Well - Box Office Theory

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