Box Office Theory

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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: 28 YEARS LATER ($41M+) and Pixar’s ELIO ($34M+); Disney’s LILO & STITCH ($130-145M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and DRAGON Pre-Sales Updates - Box Office Theory

5 days ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:28 Years Later is positioned as the likely horror centerpiece of summer 2025 with a prime mid-late June release date following what multiple outlets reported last December was the second-most viewed horror trailer online in history behind It: Chapter Two.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: THUNDERBOLTS*, a.k.a. THE NEW AVENGERS ($35M+) and SINNERS ($24M+) to Continue Reign Over a Relatively Quiet Mother’s Day Frame - Box Office Theory

1 week ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. A brief reprieve from major studio releases is on hand this weekend as the crop of late spring box office hits get a chance to stretch their legs before the early summer slate resumes in earnest over the next few weeks.
Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON ($65M+) Live-Action Prospects, Sights on MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and FINAL DESTINATION’s Pre-Sales, & More - Box Office Theory

1 week ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:This week’s headline addition to the public forecast, How to Train Your Dragon, is positioned as one of the cornerstone family films of summer 2025.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: SINNERS to Repeat, Could Net #2 All-Time Horror Sophomore Weekend ($38-40M+); STAR WARS: REVENGE OF THE SITH ($20M+) and THE ACCOUNTANT 2 ($18M+) Continue Tracking Well - Box Office Theory

3 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Sinners lived up to the hype (and a little bit extra) on opening weekend, but the story is far from over as it looks to rival more records in its second weekend when the market overall looks healthy with a variety of openers and holdovers heading into the final stages of spring movie season.
5-Week Box Office Tracking: LILO & STITCH ($120M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - THE FINAL RECKONING ($75M+) and THE LAST RODEO ($8M+) Building Toward the Strongest Memorial Day Set Since 2013 - Box Office Theory

3 weeks ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. Summer box office is around the corner, and our tracking for the week takes a peak at current forecasts for what may be one of the most important Memorial Day weekends for the industry in quite some time.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: MINECRAFT ($75M+) to Continue ‘Chicken Jockey’ Craze; THE KING OF KINGS ($15M+) Eyes Biblical Breakout, THE AMATEUR, THE CHOSEN: LAST SUPPER Finale, DROP, and WARFARE Open - Box Office Theory

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. After a much needed box office breakout, A Minecraft Movie is set to rule again following its best-ever opening for a video game adaptation. The market sees a handful of notable counter-programmers, though. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:Minecraft is riding a wave of zeitgeist-cracking demand among Generations Z and Alpha on top of general family appeal. The “chicken jockey” meme has become a bona fide viral sensation among fans.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: A MINECRAFT MOVIE Is Soaring Past Prior Tracking, On Pace for Potential $100M+ Domestic Debut

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. It’s CinemaCon week, and after one of the worst quarters (both dollar- and attendance-wise) in box office history outside COVID years since consistent and publicly available measuring began in the 1980s, the industry could really use a sizable win before summer. We’re about to get it. A Minecraft MovieWarner Bros.
5-Week Box Office Forecasts & Tracking: Marvel’s THUNDERBOLTS* ($67-70M+) and a MINECRAFT ($60M+) Update

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. It’s a feast for sore eyes: the first peak at summer box office tracking. This week’s public update gives an early assessment of what to expect from Marvel Studios’ next anticipated chapter in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Thunderbolts*, as the second of three major MCU films set to hit theaters this year.
Box Office Weekend Forecast: THE CHOSEN: LAST SUPPER - PART 1, A WORKING MAN, DEATH OF A UNICORN, and THE WOMAN IN THE YARD Set to Counter SNOW WHITE’s 2nd Frame - Box Office Theory

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. With Snow White opening on point with subdued expectations last week, it’ll be another relatively light weekend in movie theaters. Some moderately good news arrives, though, with several openers and two trending to stand out. That said, the restart of March Madness with the NCAA men’s basketball tournament this weekend could impact some films, notably male-driven pics.
5-Week Box Office Forecasts & Tracking: THE ACCOUNTANT 2, STAR WARS: REVENGE OF THE SITH 20th Anniversary, UNTIL DAWN, and A24’s THE LEGEND OF OCHI

1 month ago | boxofficetheory.com | Shawn Robbins

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter. 2025’s last pre-summer weekend (by movie season reckoning) is on deck in this week’s short-range update, and it could be a decently promising one by typical standards for the final frame of April. Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:The Accountant 2 has already earned solid trailer imprints across social channels and positive reviews from early critics’ screenings, standing at 84 percent fresh from 31 Rotten Tomatoes submissions.

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Box Office Theory

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Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: 28 YEARS LATER ($41M+) and Pixar’s ELIO ($34M+); Disney’s LILO & STITCH ($130-145M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and DRAGON Pre-Sales Updates - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: THUNDERBOLTS*, a.k.a. THE NEW AVENGERS ($35M+) and SINNERS ($24M+) to Continue Reign Over a Relatively Quiet Mother’s Day Frame - Box Office Theory

Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON ($65M+) Live-Action Prospects, Sights on MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE and FINAL DESTINATION’s Pre-Sales, & More - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: SINNERS to Repeat, Could Net #2 All-Time Horror Sophomore Weekend ($38-40M+); STAR WARS: REVENGE OF THE SITH ($20M+) and THE ACCOUNTANT 2 ($18M+) Continue Tracking Well - Box Office Theory

5-Week Box Office Tracking: LILO & STITCH ($120M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - THE FINAL RECKONING ($75M+) and THE LAST RODEO ($8M+) Building Toward the Strongest Memorial Day Set Since 2013 - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: MINECRAFT ($75M+) to Continue ‘Chicken Jockey’ Craze; THE KING OF KINGS ($15M+) Eyes Biblical Breakout, THE AMATEUR, THE CHOSEN: LAST SUPPER Finale, DROP, and WARFARE Open - Box Office Theory

Box Office Weekend Forecast: A MINECRAFT MOVIE Is Soaring Past Prior Tracking, On Pace for Potential $100M+ Domestic Debut

5-Week Box Office Forecasts & Tracking: Marvel’s THUNDERBOLTS* ($67-70M+) and a MINECRAFT ($60M+) Update

Box Office Weekend Forecast: THE CHOSEN: LAST SUPPER - PART 1, A WORKING MAN, DEATH OF A UNICORN, and THE WOMAN IN THE YARD Set to Counter SNOW WHITE’s 2nd Frame - Box Office Theory

5-Week Box Office Forecasts & Tracking: THE ACCOUNTANT 2, STAR WARS: REVENGE OF THE SITH 20th Anniversary, UNTIL DAWN, and A24’s THE LEGEND OF OCHI

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