Epsilon Theory

Welcome to Second Foundation Partners, the team behind Epsilon Theory. We are dedicated to transforming the fields of investing and civic engagement. As an independent source for change, our only responsibility is to our readers, clients, and partners—our Pack! We encourage you to join us, not only to enhance your skills as an investor but also to work together towards becoming better citizens. This collective effort harnesses the strength of the crowd observing the crowd. It creates remarkable achievements, sparks revolutions, and influences markets. It is an incredibly powerful force in society, and we invite you to collaborate with us in understanding it and putting it into action.

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Our True Enemy Has Yet to Reveal Himself

1 week ago | epsilontheory.com | Ben Hunt

I don’t quote from The Godfather, Part 3 very much because it’s not a great movie and isn’t even in the same solar system as Part 1 and Part 2, but Al Pacino has two all-time great scenes here: the “pull me back in!” scene after the failed assassination attempt and the final, wordless cut scene of the movie, where — in a mirror-image contrast to Vito Corleone’s heart-attack-while-gardening death scene in Part 1, immersed in green and laughter and love — Michael collapses and dies alone in a...
Wall Street's Not-So-Golden Rule

3 weeks ago | epsilontheory.com | Ben Hunt

“What have I told you since the very first day you set foot in this office? There are three ways to make money in this business. Be first. Be smarter. Cheat. Now I don’t cheat. And although I like to think that we have some pretty smart people in this building, it sure is a hell of a lot easier to just be first.”“Sell it all.
Scoreboard

1 month ago | epsilontheory.com | Rusty Guinn |Harper Hunt |Ben Hunt

When you research narratives for a living you can’t help seeing them everywhere. Our politics are awash with them, of course. They are the water in which we swim, these broad, sweeping stories that force facts and evidence into the background. These are stories designed to make us feel more and think less, custom-made so that we can slot them effortlessly as some piece of our identity.
Crashing the Car of Pax Americana

1 month ago | epsilontheory.com | Ben Hunt

“Can I confess something? I tell you this as an artist, I think you’ll understand. Sometimes when I’m driving… On the road at night… I see two headlights coming toward me. Fast. I have this sudden impulse to turn the wheel quickly, head-on into the oncoming car. I can anticipate the explosion. The sound of shattering glass. The flames rising out of the flowing gasoline.”“Well, I have to — I have to go now, Duane, because I … I’m due back on planet Earth.”“Are you going to drive them to the airport?
DeepFreak

Feb 2, 2025 | epsilontheory.com | Harper Hunt |Ben Hunt |Rusty Guinn

We are not unbiased. We are large-scale consumers of AI inference and are not in the business of training large models. We are neither long nor short the stock of any individual company in the AI or semiconductor space, but we do pay OpenAI and Anthropic lots of money to perform AI inference for us.
A Death in the Family

Jan 20, 2025 | epsilontheory.com | Harper Hunt |Rusty Guinn |Ben Hunt

This weekend we had the memorial service for my wife’s grandmother, who died a few weeks ago. She was a wonderful woman, very much la doña for this Hispanic side of the family, very much more of a mother than a grandmother to my wife, and she was the last of her generation.
Making Sense of Markets in a Post Election World | Grant Williams and Ben Hunt

Nov 19, 2024 | epsilontheory.com | Harper Hunt |Rusty Guinn |Ben Hunt |Chris Arnade

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Ben Hunt and Grant Williams for a candid discussion of the 2024 post-election landscape and its implications for markets. The guests explore how trust, or lack thereof, shapes both political and market narratives, examining the transformation of capital markets into what they describe as a “political utility” where “number go up” has become the prevailing faith.
I Think Representative Democracy is a Good Idea and We Should Give It a Try

Nov 14, 2024 | epsilontheory.com | Harper Hunt |Chris Arnade |Rusty Guinn |Ben Hunt

I am 60 years old. I am a (very) patriotic American. I have never felt represented by any elected official. Never. Over the past week, I’ve asked a lot of people this question – have you ever felt represented by an elected official? – and with the exception of a couple of people who have felt represented by a local politician, the answer is always no. Certainly no to any national or even statewide politician.
Cursed Knowledge #30: The Road to Hell

Nov 13, 2024 | epsilontheory.com | Ben Hunt |Harper Hunt |Chris Arnade |Rusty Guinn

Cursed Knowledge is free for everyone to access. You can grab the mp3 file below, or you can subscribe at: Cursed Knowledge is our podcast that explores how narratives, for better and worse, have shaped our world without us noticing. The world is full of people pushing their version of reality on us and it’s time to expose the truth. No matter how much you might wish we hadn’t. The road to hell is paved with good intentions. But how often does that actually happen? Why do good intentions go so wrong?
Walking Phnom Penh

Nov 7, 2024 | epsilontheory.com | Harper Hunt |Rusty Guinn |Chris Arnade |Matt Zeigler

Chris Arnade is one of my favorite humans, and we’re delighted that he’s agreed to let us republish some of his public notes from his excellent substack — Chris Arnade Walks the World — which you should definitely check out, along with his book Dignity: Seeking Respect in Back Row America. I bought a copy of Dignity for each of my four daughters … it’s that good. Chris is a former bond trader, but left that all behind years ago for a much more worthwhile path.