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Semicap Stock Idea

1 week ago | fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin

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Applied Digital, Defense Semiconductors, and 1998

2 weeks ago | fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin

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NVLink Fusion: Embrace, Extend, Extinguish

1 month ago | fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin

I wrote about the three-headed hydra of Nvidia a year or two ago. Hardware, CUDA, and networking. At the time, the entire investment community’s focus was on the unbeatable CUDA moat, and I explained that Networking, too, was underrated. Two years later, and it’s clear that Networking is a first-class citizen in the Nvidia ecosystem.
China's Race to The Bottom: Margin Zero

1 month ago | fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin

Good morning. I read this tweet by Angelica on X last week, and it struck me in the context of Huawei. China’s technology industry has long followed a brutal pattern: when local competitors enter a new sector, they often decimate profit margins. The most striking example is solar panels. Once Chinese firms mastered panel production, they flooded the market with ultra-cheap supply, crushing global margins and wiping out competitors. This race to zero has repeated itself across sectors.
Earnings: FIX, Advantest, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, MPWR, TOLEY, TER, QRVO

1 month ago | fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
The Three Tariff Problem

2 months ago | fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin

Before it was here, it was on Core Research at SemiAnalysis. The best and brightest in semiconductor research work at SemiAnalysis - reach out if you’re interested. Last week, I read an excellent piece on “The Beer Game,” a supply chain game that discusses complex system dynamics. The game is pretty simple; four players do not communicate with each other and only exchange orders with their upstream partners and downstream partners.
Earnings: INTC, STM, TXN, VRT, LRCX and More

2 months ago | fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin

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Where is the Tariff Pull Forward?

2 months ago | fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin

I'll start with a quick TSMC overview and then drill into the single biggest question I've been asked so far this earnings season - where is the tariff pull-forward? TSMC put up an expected revenue beat, with the majority of the revenue growth coming from the large and fast-growing HPC segment. TSMC is on track to double its AI revenue in 2025 and expects to grow in the mid-40s based on its 2024 revenue base.
MRVL-IFX Deal and Intel Silver Lake Deal

2 months ago | fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin

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After the Fallout: Yields Spiral

2 months ago | fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin

This week’s will have a bit of macroeconomics and semiconductors. If you haven’t heard, Trump is pausing additional reciprocal tariffs on anyone not named China. Here’s the potential impact of the new higher China tariffs, sourced from Bloomberg. Additionally, China is pursuing an origin of semiconductor tariff, which is sending Texas Instruments down today. As you may have heard, there’s a loophole for servers, specifically GPUs and others. SemiAnalysis did a great job on it here.