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1 week ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
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2 weeks ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
Before it was here, it was on Core Research at SemiAnalysis. The best and brightest in semiconductor research work at SemiAnalysis - reach out if you’re interested. Last week, I read an excellent piece on “The Beer Game,” a supply chain game that discusses complex system dynamics. The game is pretty simple; four players do not communicate with each other and only exchange orders with their upstream partners and downstream partners.
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2 weeks ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
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3 weeks ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
I'll start with a quick TSMC overview and then drill into the single biggest question I've been asked so far this earnings season - where is the tariff pull-forward? TSMC put up an expected revenue beat, with the majority of the revenue growth coming from the large and fast-growing HPC segment. TSMC is on track to double its AI revenue in 2025 and expects to grow in the mid-40s based on its 2024 revenue base.
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3 weeks ago | 
chinatalk.media | Jordan Schneider |Dylan Patel |Doug O'Laughlin
Dylan Patel and Doug O’Laughlin of SemiAnalysis explore Huawei new rack and its broader strategy of leveraging structural advantages to resist, circumvent, and nullify export controls — as well as how the U.S. government should respond. We also get into chip tariff policy. Semiconductors are exempt from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs for now, but the administration has signaled that chip-specific tariffs are coming soon.
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1 month ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
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1 month ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
This week’s will have a bit of macroeconomics and semiconductors. If you haven’t heard, Trump is pausing additional reciprocal tariffs on anyone not named China. Here’s the potential impact of the new higher China tariffs, sourced from Bloomberg. Additionally, China is pursuing an origin of semiconductor tariff, which is sending Texas Instruments down today. As you may have heard, there’s a loophole for servers, specifically GPUs and others. SemiAnalysis did a great job on it here.
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1 month ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
It’s been a while since I’ve had some rapid-fire takes. Reminder: Be gentle with me. I’m recovering from surgery and a bit off my game. I know this is turning into a macroeconomic newsletter these days (jokes!), but I do want to talk about some big moves in the space. First, let’s talk about Coreweave. As a friendly reminder, it was on Core Research on SemiAnalysis before it was here. CoreWeave is… contentious. I have not heard more pessimism in a new offering in a long time.
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1 month ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
First - before you read anything, you should read the GTC writeup by SemiAnalysis. I am very proud of the quick and professional work, and I heavily helped the writing there first. That is my technical overview of the event. I will not repeat SemiAnalysis's (and my) work there. I believe it’s pretty much as good as it gets. There is only literally one thing I want to add as an observation. GPUs are like CPUs of old. They are improving quickly and support a broad range of accelerated workloads.
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1 month ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
After last week’s note, you can tell I’m decidedly more bearish on the economy and in general. It’s not just me. Remember that uncertainty is a synonym for volatility in the economy. And as we’ve seen bearishness, we’ve witnessed increasing volatility. I expect this to continue. Moreover, I must make a pretty simple observation about cycles, especially the AI-driven ones.
