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1 week ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
I wrote about the three-headed hydra of Nvidia a year or two ago. Hardware, CUDA, and networking. At the time, the entire investment community’s focus was on the unbeatable CUDA moat, and I explained that Networking, too, was underrated. Two years later, and it’s clear that Networking is a first-class citizen in the Nvidia ecosystem.
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2 weeks ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
Good morning. I read this tweet by Angelica on X last week, and it struck me in the context of Huawei. China’s technology industry has long followed a brutal pattern: when local competitors enter a new sector, they often decimate profit margins. The most striking example is solar panels. Once Chinese firms mastered panel production, they flooded the market with ultra-cheap supply, crushing global margins and wiping out competitors. This race to zero has repeated itself across sectors.
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1 month ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
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1 month ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
Before it was here, it was on Core Research at SemiAnalysis. The best and brightest in semiconductor research work at SemiAnalysis - reach out if you’re interested. Last week, I read an excellent piece on “The Beer Game,” a supply chain game that discusses complex system dynamics. The game is pretty simple; four players do not communicate with each other and only exchange orders with their upstream partners and downstream partners.
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1 month ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
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1 month ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
I'll start with a quick TSMC overview and then drill into the single biggest question I've been asked so far this earnings season - where is the tariff pull-forward? TSMC put up an expected revenue beat, with the majority of the revenue growth coming from the large and fast-growing HPC segment. TSMC is on track to double its AI revenue in 2025 and expects to grow in the mid-40s based on its 2024 revenue base.
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1 month ago | 
chinatalk.media | Jordan Schneider |Dylan Patel |Doug O'Laughlin
Dylan Patel and Doug O’Laughlin of SemiAnalysis explore Huawei new rack and its broader strategy of leveraging structural advantages to resist, circumvent, and nullify export controls — as well as how the U.S. government should respond. We also get into chip tariff policy. Semiconductors are exempt from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs for now, but the administration has signaled that chip-specific tariffs are coming soon.
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1 month ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
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1 month ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
This week’s will have a bit of macroeconomics and semiconductors. If you haven’t heard, Trump is pausing additional reciprocal tariffs on anyone not named China. Here’s the potential impact of the new higher China tariffs, sourced from Bloomberg. Additionally, China is pursuing an origin of semiconductor tariff, which is sending Texas Instruments down today. As you may have heard, there’s a loophole for servers, specifically GPUs and others. SemiAnalysis did a great job on it here.
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2 months ago | 
fabricatedknowledge.com | Doug O'Laughlin
It’s been a while since I’ve had some rapid-fire takes. Reminder: Be gentle with me. I’m recovering from surgery and a bit off my game. I know this is turning into a macroeconomic newsletter these days (jokes!), but I do want to talk about some big moves in the space. First, let’s talk about Coreweave. As a friendly reminder, it was on Core Research on SemiAnalysis before it was here. CoreWeave is… contentious. I have not heard more pessimism in a new offering in a long time.
