Gray Mirror

I'm Curtis Yarvin, previously recognized as Mencius Moldbug, and you're here to read and share your thoughts on the drafts of my upcoming book. Once the book is complete, we can find a different reason to connect. The goal of Gray Mirror Of The Nihilist Prince is to offer an in-depth, original perspective on governance in the 21st century. While the book will revisit some concepts from my earlier blog, Unqualified Reservations (2007-2013), that primarily explored historical and contemporary issues, Gray Mirror will feature entirely new, high-quality content focused on the future.

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In NYC till Friday

3 weeks ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

I’m in NYC from now till Friday night. Managing contacts isn’t my strong suit. I meet way too many wonderful people. But if you want to meet up this week, email, DM or text me—as long as either (a) we’ve hung out either online or IRL (including office hours), or (b) you’re someone I’d know or have heard of anyway. Sorry, strangers—a bit of a security moment, as you’d guess. (Also, please follow me on Twitter at @curtis_yarvin.)
A new sovereign accounting

3 weeks ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

As we slowly start to come to terms with the incredible conceptual difficulty of even imagining what it would mean to restructure the USG, some of the deepest issues are at the level of finance, economics, and even mere accounting. The United States needs to be restructured in many senses—most of all, in a financial sense. “Restructuring,” in a financial sense, is a euphemism for bankruptcy. A national restructuring is a national bankruptcy.
Harvard to the Finland Station

2 months ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

There are rumors that I may be speaking soon at Harvard. I have nothing to announce at present. (But how hard can it be to rent an armored car?)As a longstanding critic of that ancient institution, I want to critique the Trump administration’s letter to Harvard. I want to like the letter. I feel it is almost good. Almost does not necessarily cut it in this kind of a historical situation, however.
Euromedia

2 months ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

Video interview in the Spectator; text interview at Le Grand Continent. (Content warning: French.)
The problem with Trumpian mercantilism

2 months ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

I get messages from people (sad people!) who still believe in free trade. I urge them to read Carlyle on the condition-of-England question. Here is a modernized version. Suppose you had a drone which was a time machine: it could visit history, even alternate history, but only to fly over it and take video. When you watch the video of two versions of a city, you decide which one is doing better. Then, you check the actual statistics to see if you were right.
Implementing market-balanced trade

2 months ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

Mercantilism is hard. Tariffs are one possible element of a successful trade policy. While tariffs worked well in East Asia in the second half of the 20th century, they worked badly in Latin America at the same time. Tariffs do not guarantee success. In this paywalled post, I’ll explain the generalized trade framework known as import certificates, a Warren Buffett proposal which flamed out in the Senate in 2006. This is mainstream Gray Mirror—a rare take.
Actually you shouldn't van people

2 months ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

One phrase I heard a few times on my last DC trip was “goes hard.” Sure: generally, if your choice is to “go hard” or “go soft,” in general, it’s probably better to go hard. There are exceptions, though. Frankly—you can’t say the Holocaust didn’t go hard. But actually, there is more than one dimension. There is “go big” versus “go small.” There is “go sharp” or “go smooth.” Any of these quadrants of governance style, in any situation, may be necessary.
Office hours, Washington DC, Mar 25-27

Mar 23, 2025 | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

Come and talk to me about something interesting. We’ll keep it a secret. Please, no journalists (unless you want to tell me something interesting about journalism). Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday morning, Thursday all day.
Barbarians and mandarins

Mar 6, 2025 | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

After six weeks, is Trump 47 going well? It is and it isn’t. Frankly, I give it a C-. While still far below its potential, it at least has not failed. Which is frankly amazing. What is frustrating about this administration is that it has the opportunity to win and the strength to win, but neither (it seems) the will or the understanding to win. So, it’s going to lose. But it is not yet fated to lose.
Gaza, Inc.

Feb 6, 2025 | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

I’m worried that the resemblance between President Trump’s Gaza plan and mine will contribute to the weird delusion that I am secretly running the world. No, actually, (a) I have not talked to anyone important about Gaza; and (b) the idea is obvious, anyway. I realize that it seems improbable that we would both have the same crackpot idea. No. It is extremely probable, because the President and I inhabit the same reality. We are both looking up and noticing that the sky is blue.