Gray Mirror

I'm Curtis Yarvin, previously recognized as Mencius Moldbug, and you're here to read and share your thoughts on the drafts of my upcoming book. Once the book is complete, we can find a different reason to connect. The goal of Gray Mirror Of The Nihilist Prince is to offer an in-depth, original perspective on governance in the 21st century. While the book will revisit some concepts from my earlier blog, Unqualified Reservations (2007-2013), that primarily explored historical and contemporary issues, Gray Mirror will feature entirely new, high-quality content focused on the future.

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2 weeks ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

Video interview in the Spectator; text interview at Le Grand Continent. (Content warning: French.)
The problem with Trumpian mercantilism

2 weeks ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

I get messages from people (sad people!) who still believe in free trade. I urge them to read Carlyle on the condition-of-England question. Here is a modernized version. Suppose you had a drone which was a time machine: it could visit history, even alternate history, but only to fly over it and take video. When you watch the video of two versions of a city, you decide which one is doing better. Then, you check the actual statistics to see if you were right.
Implementing market-balanced trade

2 weeks ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

Mercantilism is hard. Tariffs are one possible element of a successful trade policy. While tariffs worked well in East Asia in the second half of the 20th century, they worked badly in Latin America at the same time. Tariffs do not guarantee success. In this paywalled post, I’ll explain the generalized trade framework known as import certificates, a Warren Buffett proposal which flamed out in the Senate in 2006. This is mainstream Gray Mirror—a rare take.
Actually you shouldn't van people

3 weeks ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

One phrase I heard a few times on my last DC trip was “goes hard.” Sure: generally, if your choice is to “go hard” or “go soft,” in general, it’s probably better to go hard. There are exceptions, though. Frankly—you can’t say the Holocaust didn’t go hard. But actually, there is more than one dimension. There is “go big” versus “go small.” There is “go sharp” or “go smooth.” Any of these quadrants of governance style, in any situation, may be necessary.
Office hours, Washington DC, Mar 25-27

1 month ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

Come and talk to me about something interesting. We’ll keep it a secret. Please, no journalists (unless you want to tell me something interesting about journalism). Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday morning, Thursday all day.
Barbarians and mandarins

1 month ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

After six weeks, is Trump 47 going well? It is and it isn’t. Frankly, I give it a C-. While still far below its potential, it at least has not failed. Which is frankly amazing. What is frustrating about this administration is that it has the opportunity to win and the strength to win, but neither (it seems) the will or the understanding to win. So, it’s going to lose. But it is not yet fated to lose.
Gaza, Inc.

2 months ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

I’m worried that the resemblance between President Trump’s Gaza plan and mine will contribute to the weird delusion that I am secretly running the world. No, actually, (a) I have not talked to anyone important about Gaza; and (b) the idea is obvious, anyway. I realize that it seems improbable that we would both have the same crackpot idea. No. It is extremely probable, because the President and I inhabit the same reality. We are both looking up and noticing that the sky is blue.
The pleasure of error

2 months ago | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

After a week, I think it’s clear that Donald Trump was not engaging in hyperbole when he told the libs: “we will do things to you that have never been done before.” What an incredible line! What a comedian! What a prophet! Many such cases. Poetry is just a line that sticks in your head—and while bad politics is bad poetry, good politics is good poetry. Politics and religion are brothers; and comedy is the cousin of both. Every prophet is a comedian. Every comedian is a prophet.
Welcome NYT readers

Jan 24, 2025 | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

If you came from there, there’s a lot here! Look around. Better yet—buy my new book!I feel like it might be a good time to buy Urbit stars. (Email me if you want 4 or more.)Most posts recently have been free, because that seemed important for the moment. But that moment has… changed. There’s also a lot of great paywalled content in the archive. Don’t miss it if you—
Paul Graham's error

Jan 16, 2025 | graymirror.substack.com | Curtis Yarvin

It goes without saying that I have enormous admiration for Paul Graham—as a writer, a coder, and a businessman. In fact, he is much more successful than me at all three of these things, which is infuriating. But at least as a historian, Graham is refreshingly out of his depth. It is not his fault. He thinks he is standing on a concrete foundation, not a pit of rubble and slime. He can see that he is wading in slime—but he thinks there is a floor. So does everyone. There is no floor.