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Articles

No Panic...Yet

1 week ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

The Iran/Israel conflict is creating tension in the markets, but not panic. The VIX has pushed into the low 20s, but that’s not nearly the level that would indicate a big risk-off shift. There’s an acknowledgement that the crude oil market is unsettled and it’s unclear how high prices might go, but the market doesn’t seem to think that this is going to be much more than a short-term disturbance.
Could Healthcare Be The Next Big Beneficiary Of Deregulation?

1 week ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

Below is an assessment of the performance of some of the most important sectors and asset classes relative to each other with an interpretation of what underlying market dynamics may be signaling about the future direction of risk-taking by investors. The below charts are all price ratios which show the underlying trend of the numerator relative to the denominator. A rising price ratio means the numerator is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator.
Mixed Signals

1 week ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

How To Interpret the Signals: Within each strategy, there is a risk-on and risk-off investment recommendation, with the risk-off option being the more conservative of the two. When a particular signal indicates that investors should be risk-off, for example, subscribers should consider investing in the risk-off option and avoiding the risk-on option. The opposite, therefore, would be true when the signal flips to risk-on. In each strategy, you’d always be invested in one option or the other.
Kai Wu: Why Value Investing Must Evolve for Today's Market

1 week ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

Join me for an insightful interview on why value investing must evolve for today's market! I’m joined by Kai Wu, founder and CIO of Sparkline Capital, as we explore the shift from traditional value metrics to a focus on intangible assets like intellectual property, brand equity, and human capital. Learn how modern strategies embrace these key drivers of growth in tech-driven markets. We also discuss how Sparkline’s innovative ETFs, ITAN and DTAN, are reshaping the investing landscape.
This Is About Oil

2 weeks ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

Not surprisingly, geopolitics dominated the narrative, but for different reasons than we’ve seen in the recent past. The Israeli air strikes against Iran on Thursday, which are likely to last several days, pushed crude oil prices to nearly $78 a barrel for the first time since the beginning of this year. Treasury yields rose again, but gold acting as a safe haven once again, continued its week-long move higher.
This 11% Yielder Looks Primed For A Distribution Cut

2 weeks ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

Every week, we’ll profile a high yield investment fund that typically offers an annualized distribution of 6-10% or more. With the S&P 500 yielding less than 2%, many investors find it difficult to achieve the portfolio income necessary to meet their needs and goals. This report is designed to help address those concerns. After a few weeks of turmoil around Liberation Day, junk bonds quickly regained their footing and began steadily outperforming Treasury bonds again.
The Dollar vs. Treasury Yields: One Of Them Is About To Give

2 weeks ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

A trade deal between the U.S. and China was supposed to be one of the things that would mark a return to normalcy for the markets and maybe even ignite the next leg of the bull market. Even though we got one this week (who knows what’s actually a part of the deal, but it’s not likely to be a game changer), the market again largely shrugged it off. If investors are settled on their view of the trade war, it’s time for them to find the next catalyst.
FMKT: Deregulation Is The Next Big Catalyst

2 weeks ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

For years, regulation has acted as a drag on the economy. While it’s designed to protect consumers, stabilize markets and reduce systemic risk, it can also slow innovation, make it more difficult to bring new products to market and result in millions of dollars of extra expense. The good news for investors and the market is that President Trump has put a target on it. His pro-business stance has always emphasized improving the operating conditions for corporations to make them more profitable.
The Headline Event Of The Week

2 weeks ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

The latest round of U.S.-China trade discussions may or may not result in some sort of agreement, but the fact that we’re simply moving down this path should help calm the markets. As I’ve noted in the recent past, the market seems to have stopped reacting to short-term developments and is waiting for some type of long-term solution instead.
Another Tech-Only Rally

2 weeks ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

Below is an assessment of the performance of some of the most important sectors and asset classes relative to each other with an interpretation of what underlying market dynamics may be signaling about the future direction of risk-taking by investors. The below charts are all price ratios which show the underlying trend of the numerator relative to the denominator. A rising price ratio means the numerator is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator.