Michael A. Gayed

New York

Portfolio Manager at Tidal Financial Group

Publisher at mixo.io

Writer at leadlagreport.substack.com

Articles

VIX in the 20s

4 days ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

For what was a pretty busy news cycle last week, the markets ended up relatively unmoved. The VIX is hovering in the lower 20s, a sign that investors seem to be settling into a new normal post-Liberation Day, but also an indication that their guard is still up. Despite some good news, there are still too many unknowns related to tariffs to feel much better about where conditions are right now. The Fed delivered a message following their meeting this week that was pretty much exactly as expected.
Unpopular Opinion: The Fed Might Not Cut Rates At All In 2025

6 days ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

This week, the U.S. and the U.K. announced an “historic” trade deal that will dial back tariff rates for both nations while simultaneously easing trade conditions for British car exports and the agriculture market for both countries. We’ve been promised a huge number of trade deals for months and it looks like we might finally get the first!In terms of economic impact, this deal in its rumored form would probably have little.
JOJO: How To Make Volatility Work For You

1 week ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

Following a volatile April for both stocks and bonds, the market seems to be finding a little composure again. Trade war escalation seems to have peaked (for now at least) and investors seem slightly more optimistic that geopolitical tensions will improve before they get worse. Of course, change has been the norm when it comes to global trade relations, so investors might be wise not to get too comfortable with where conditions have been recently. That easing is seen in the bond market as well.
China Hanging On

1 week ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

The market is continuing the settling down process following a volatile April featuring peak trade uncertainty. As of now, the escalation seems to be taking a pause and, while we’re still seeing things, such as the 100% tariff threat on foreign films, being thrown about, the days of raising blanket tariff rates to more than 100% seem to be in the rearview mirror for now.
Sucking The Bulls In One More Time

1 week ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

Below is an assessment of the performance of some of the most important sectors and asset classes relative to each other with an interpretation of what underlying market dynamics may be signaling about the future direction of risk-taking by investors. The below charts are all price ratios which show the underlying trend of the numerator relative to the denominator. A rising price ratio means the numerator is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator.
MDY: The Tariff Headlines Make For A Powerful Opportunity (NYSEARCA:MDY)

1 week ago | seekingalpha.com | Michael A. Gayed

SummaryMid-cap stocks are undervalued compared to large-caps, creating a potential buy-low opportunity as market cycles shift and valuations revert to the mean. The SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) offers substantial liquidity, reasonable expense ratios, and sector allocations that counterbalance tech-heavy portfolios. Tariff fears disproportionately affecting mid-caps are misguided; large-caps with global supply chains are more vulnerable to trade disruptions.
What Now?

1 week ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

How To Interpret the Signals: Within each strategy, there is a risk-on and risk-off investment recommendation, with the risk-off option being the more conservative of the two. When a particular signal indicates that investors should be risk-off, for example, subscribers should consider investing in the risk-off option and avoiding the risk-on option. The opposite, therefore, would be true when the signal flips to risk-on. In each strategy, you’d always be invested in one option or the other.
Market Signals and Bear Market Warning Signs with Vincent Randazzo

1 week ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

The market is sending clear warning signals that shouldn't be ignored. Technical analysis expert Vincent Randazzo reveals how deteriorating market breadth—a critical measure of market health—suggests we've entered a bear market that could persist longer than most anticipate. Drawing on over two decades of experience in technical analysis, Randazzo explains that market breadth essentially represents liquidity: how much money is flowing into how many different companies.
SCYB: Not The Time For High Yield (NYSEARCA:SCYB)

1 week ago | seekingalpha.com | Michael A. Gayed

SummaryInflation post-Covid has driven demand for high-yield investments like the Schwab High Yield Bond ETF (SCYB), which boasts a 7.88% yield and low expense ratio. SCYB's balanced duration profile and strong performance have attracted over $1 billion in assets, despite ongoing macroeconomic concerns and interest rate uncertainties. The fund's portfolio includes a significant portion of BB and B-rated bonds, raising concerns about the risk-reward balance given current tight credit spreads.
Two Things

1 week ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

We’re now starting to get some of the hard data that’s going to tell us two things - how consumers are reacting to tariff-induced higher prices and how businesses are handling the potential disruptions from the trade war. The data wasn’t altogether unexpected. Q1 GDP came in at -0.3% with most of the damage being done by a huge increase in imports from people looking to get ahead of tariffs. Does that mean we could see a snapback in Q2 as the trade deficit normalizes or even reverses again?