Michael A. Gayed

4 days ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

Below is an assessment of the performance of some of the most important sectors and asset classes relative to each other with an interpretation of what underlying market dynamics may be signaling about the future direction of risk-taking by investors. The below charts are all price ratios which show the underlying trend of the numerator relative to the denominator. A rising price ratio means the numerator is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator.

5 days ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

How To Interpret the Signals: Within each strategy, there is a risk-on and risk-off investment recommendation, with the risk-off option being the more conservative of the two. When a particular signal indicates that investors should be risk-off, for example, subscribers should consider investing in the risk-off option and avoiding the risk-on option. The opposite, therefore, would be true when the signal flips to risk-on. In each strategy, you’d always be invested in one option or the other.

6 days ago | moneyshow.com | Michael A. Gayed

In isolation, you’d think that a sudden halt for President Trump’s tariffs would be warmly welcomed by the market. US stock prices did move higher right out of the gate...but then pulled back to relatively unchanged. The initial reaction of the 10-year Treasury yield also posed an interesting thought experiment, writes Michael Gayed, editor of The Lead-Lag Report.

6 days ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

Will Fed rate hikes trigger a recession? 🤔 Join me as I explore this critical question with financial experts Jim Bianco and Jay Hatfield. We break down the Federal Reserve’s strategy, inflation concerns, housing market trends, and the bond market's recent volatility. If you enjoy this interview, consider joining the few who understand this as a full-access subscriber of The Lead-Lag Report through a paid subscription.

1 week ago | leadlagreport.substack.com | Michael A. Gayed

It was one of the most volatile weeks in terms of trade war developments yet. Within the span of about 48 hours, we saw the U.S. international trade court block the Trump tariffs, an appeals court temporarily reinstate them and Trump claim that China “totally violated” their trade agreement. Earlier this year, that would have caused mass chaos and volatility in both the equity and bond markets. This week, however, the markets largely reacted with a big “meh”.