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China's Deepseek is NOT as smart as ChatGPT-o1

2 months ago | maximumtruth.org | Maxim Lott

The AI world is exploding over news of the new Chinese AI “Deepseek”. The US stock market plunged Monday, likely on news that the US now has serious competition when it comes to AI. Deepseek has set some impressive performance benchmarks, and is also nearly tying ChatGPT-4o in the Chatbot arena, where users rank AI answers. But how does Deepseek do on measures of pure intelligence? I’ve now run the IQ tests. On my site TrackingAI.org, we regularly give AIs IQ tests.
Election Betting Updates

Nov 3, 2024 | maximumtruth.org | Maxim Lott

There have been many twists and turns in the Presidential betting over the last month. I’ve been following them all closely, because I run ElectionBettingOdds.com, so I’ll share what I’ve observed:Here’s where the betting odds stand right now, along with the graph over the last month:Looking at the start of the graph, bettors bid up Trump’s odds for a while, front-running the polling changes.
The Rational Case for Trump

Oct 22, 2024 | maximumtruth.org | Maxim Lott

Note: The counterpart to this essay, The Rational Case forHarris, is also available on the homepage at maximumtruth.org. The US election is coming up! We’re flooded with talking points, but I haven’t seen a singlearticle going through the issues and earnestly making a case for a candidate. Everyone thinks it’s “obvious” why their candidate is better. It’s not obvious!So today, I’m simultaneously posting the strongest possible case for Harris, and also for Trump.
DEEP DIVE: Is voting rational? In swing states, YES

Oct 17, 2024 | maximumtruth.org | Maxim Lott

The conventional wisdom is “everyone should vote. Do your civic duty!” But I’m in enough contrarian circles that I also hear “I don’t vote, because voting is irrational. A single vote never determines an election.”Are the critics right? Before researching this post, I assumed that they were right about a single vote being irrelevant for Presidential elections.
Massive breakthrough in AI intelligence: OpenAI passes IQ 120

Sep 14, 2024 | maximumtruth.org | Maxim Lott

Worried about AI taking over the world? You probably should be. That’s my new takeaway after testing OpenAI’s new model, “o1” this morning. It blows all other AIs out of the water on the Norway Mensa IQ test:I had become blasé about AI progress after my initial tests in February, because there was approximately zero IQ improvement since then. This week, that all changed. Specifically, o1 got 25 out of 35 IQ questions correct, far above what most humans get.
Can polling bias help predict the election?

Sep 1, 2024 | maximumtruth.org | Maxim Lott

While the betting odds are the best single way to predict of what will happen in the election, I’m fascinated enough by politics that I also dig into the polling. From following it for years, I’m well aware that there are persistent polling biases in certain states. But which states? How much? For which party? So, I graphed it out. The yellow bars below show the current polling average in each state, where above zero means Trump leads, and below zero means Harris leads.
Where is your vote worth the most?

Aug 17, 2024 | maximumtruth.org | Maxim Lott

The US electoral college system means that votes are worth different amounts depending on which state one votes in. The American founders designed the system to make sure each state was properly represented, and they succeeded. But an inevitable side effect is that individual votes within each state are not equal, because if most people in your state agree with you, then your opinion matters little.
Betting markets were right, and I was wrong, about Biden dropping out

Aug 1, 2024 | maximumtruth.org | Maxim Lott

While I almost always defer to the betting markets, and have made money on them, two weeks ago I thought I saw a rare market mistake, and wrote about it here, arguing that Biden would not drop out because it was not in his interest to do so. I was wrong.
The Betting Odds Rollercoaster

Jul 19, 2024 | maximumtruth.org | Maxim Lott

Note: This blog is not generally about elections, but recent events are interesting enough that I’m posting about it. The below is something I just posted on Election Betting Updates, a mailing list that’ll give weekly updates on the odds. If that’s something you’d want to get in future weeks, you can sign up for free here.But in general, such betting odds updates won’t be posted on Maximum Truth, to focus on other subjects. The last week has brought rapid swings in the betting odds.
Why Biden won't drop out

Jul 13, 2024 | maximumtruth.org | Maxim Lott

Note: This post is not an endorsement of any candidate, or about whether Biden should drop out. It is about whether he will drop out, or not. As the creator of ElectionBettingOdds.com, I almost always defer to the betting markets. They’re the single best predictor. But just as with the stock market, they aren’t perfect. People do make money by having insights that markets miss.