Mish Talk

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Betting Odds of Cuomo Winning the NYC Primary Plunge to 13 Percent

3 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

I am somewhat of an election junkie. Here’s a NYC update. Voting is over and the counting is underway. Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old socialist pledging rent freezes, has jumped into the lead over Cuomo in Tuesday’s primary. Image PolymarketJust six days ago, one could have bought Mamdani for under 10 cents. You would have had to pay 80 cents for Cuomo. Tonight Cuomo is trading for 13 cents, under Eric Adams who is not even in the primary.
A Socialist Rent Freeze Advocate Catches Cuomo New York City Election Polls

3 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

The siren songs of rent controls ring loud and clear. Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old socialist pledging rent freezes, has leapt to a tie with Cuomo in Tuesday’s primary. Image PolymarketThe New York City ChoiceAndrew Cuomo, a former Governor who resigned over a barrage of sexual harassment allegations. Zohran Mamdan, a socialist rent freeze nutcase. Eric Adams, the disgraced current mayor accused of accepting bribes and illegal campaign contributions.
Home Prices Decline for the Second Month But It Doesn’t Even Register

3 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Case-Shiller home prices fell 0.3 percent in April. Case-Shiller home prices fell 0.3 percent in April after declining 0.1 percent in March. The lead chart puts things in perspective. What Is Case-Shiller? Case-Shiller measures sales prices of the exact same home over time. It factors out major improvements. It’s a better measure than median or average prices because the latter does not factor in square footage, location, lot size, or amenities. However, Case-Shiller is a lagging indicator.
Weight Loss Drugs Help Blow Out the US Trade Deficit

3 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Let’s discuss Ireland, weight loss drugs, and other trade distortions. I downloaded census data for 10 countries plus the EU as a hole for 2024 and through April of 2025. My percentages comparisons come with a caution that the data is not seasonally adjusted so 4 months through April might not equal 33 percent of a year. Yet, some things stand out, like Ireland which distorted the entirety of the EU by itself.
Trump Says Iran and Israel Agree to a Complete, Total Cease-Fire

4 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Trump says the “12-Day War” is over.
More Pressure on Powell to Cut Interest Rates, Some from Within the Fed

4 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Two Fed Governors are open to July rate cuts adding to the pressure on Powell. Fed Governor Waller on Rate CutsCNBC reports Fed Governor Waller Says Central Bank Could Cut Rates as Early as July. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that he doesn’t expect tariffs to boost inflation significantly so policymakers should be looking to lower interest rates as early as next month.
Existing-Home Sales Rise 0.8 Percent in May, Inventory Soars

4 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Existing home sales rose but flounder at low levels. Rising inventory will eventually impact prices. The NAR reports Existing-Home Sales Increase 0.8% in MaySix Key HighlightsExisting-home sales rose 0.8 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million. Sales are down 0.7 percent from one year ago.
How Long Can the US Dollar Remain the Global Reserve Currency?

4 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

An article on the fundamental flaws with the euro triggered this post. What Are the Key Reserve Currency Requirements? Deep, liquid, open bond marketsFloating currencyProperty rightsAbility and willingness to run trade deficitsThe euro flunks requirement one due to lack of a Eurobond. Germany flunks rule four. What Are Eurobonds? Eurobonds don’t exist. But the idea is a centralized debt similar to US treasuries.
Senate Byrd Bath Reduces Budget Cuts in the One Big Beautiful Act

5 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

The Senate Parliamentarian said no to a number of budget cuts in the OBBA. The Byrd Rule Comes Into PlayQ: What is the Byrd Rule? A: The Byrd Rule, formally known as Section 313 of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, is a Senate rule that prevents extraneous matter from being included in budget reconciliation legislation. It’s designed to ensure that reconciliation bills, which can pass with a simple majority, focus on budgetary matters rather than being used to enact unrelated policy changes.
Derivatives Suggest $80 WTI Oil when Futures Open, then What?

5 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Expect much higher prices for oil when the market opens. Here are the events in play. Iran Orders Closure of Strait of HormuzColor me skeptical that Iran can pull this off for any length of time, but the New York Post reports Iran Orders Closure of Strait of Hormuz putting one-fifth of world’s oil supply at risk. Iran’s parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping channel through which around 20% of the world’s daily oil flows.

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