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GDPNow Forecast Jumps to 3.8 Percent on Improved Trade Data

5 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

GDPNow surged 1.6 percentage points to 3.8 percent on improved import-export data. International Trade in GoodsApril Trade Data Details Balance: Improved from $-162.3 billion to $-87.6 billion, a whopping 74.7 billion improvement vs an expected consensus improvement of 19.3 billion. Imports month-over-months fell from 5.7 percent to -19.8 percent. Exports rose for an upwardly revised month-over-months fell from 2.3 percent to 3.4 percent.
Waymo Surges to 10 Million Paid Rides, Tesla Has Zero

6 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Hello Elon Musk, you are now 10 million rides behind Waymo. It’s Waymo’s WorldPlease consider the Wall Street Journal, It’s Waymo’s World. We’re All Just Riding in It.Unless you live in one of the few cities where you can hail a ride from Waymo, which is owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet GOOGL, it’s almost impossible to appreciate just how quickly their streets have been invaded by autonomous vehicles. Waymo was doing 10,000 paid rides a week in August 2023.
Trump Will Double Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50 Percent

6 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Tariff madness continues. Steel Tariffs Will DoubleInsistent that US manufacturers who use steel will pay still more, especially the auto industry and small businesses, Trump Says Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Will Double to 50%President Trump said he would double tariffs on imported steel, a move he said would bolster the domestic industry and protect U.S. jobs.
Bloomington Illinois Is Ranked the Biggest Economic Disaster in the Nation

6 days ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Rockford, Danville, and Peoria are also in the bottom 25 percent. Congratulations (of sorts) to Illinois for Bloomington’s 100% bottom ranking. No other metro area in the nation is worse. Rockford is also notable for negative GDP since 2019. Only 4.4 percent of the nation’s metro areas were worse. Danville, my home town, is in the bottom quartile along with Peoria, and Carbondale.
The Second Largest Inventory Build in History, Expect Big Problems

1 week ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Companies stockpiled massive inventories ahead of reciprocal tariffs. What now? The above amusing chart shows the increasing amplitude, in both directions, of Change in Private Inventories (CIPI) over time. Real means inflation-adjusted. This is the second largest inventory build in history. Only pandemic rebuild was larger. Real GDP, Real Final Sales, Real GDIReal GDP grew at -0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Real Final Sales declined 2.9 percentage points in the first quarter.
Continued Unemployment Claims Reach the Highest Since Nov 13, 2021

1 week ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Continued claims are up 26,000 to 1,890,250. On Thursday, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending May 29, 2025. Initial Unemployment ClaimsIn the week ending May 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 240,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 227,000 to 226,000.
The Savings Rate Increases in April as Income Rose More than Spending

1 week ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

The savings rate is up, inflation tame, and real spending is weak. Five charts. Please consider the BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report for April 2025. Reported Details Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in AprilDisposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $189.4 billion (0.8 percent)Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).
Corporate Profits Suffer the Largest Drop Since the Fourth Quarter of 2020

1 week ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Corporate profits fell by $118 billion, a decline of 2.95 percent. The BEA first-Quarter GDP Report shows a decline in corporate profits. Key PointsProfits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $118.1 billion in the first quarter. On a percentage basis, profits decline 2.95 percent. Profits increased $204.7 billion in the the fourth quarter, up 5.38 percentProfits swing substantially, but -2.95 percent is big move.
Significant Revisions to First-Quarter GDP, Income Declines 0.2 Percent

1 week ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Gross Domestic Income drops, Investment higher, real final sales lower. Superficially, the BEA reports GDP Declined 0.2 Percent in the first quarter of 2025. That is an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points (PP) that looks insignificant. The actual details are more enlighteningSignificant Changes Gross Domestic Income (GDI): -0.2 percent. GDI is not available in the advance report.
The Court Unanimously Strikes Down Trump’s Global Tariffs, Here’s Why

1 week ago | mishtalk.com | Mike Shedlock

Let’s discuss Trump’s rationale for the tariffs and the court ruling. Reciprocal Tariffs BackgroundOn April 2, Trump hoisted his ridiculous definition of reciprocal tariffs setting a minimum 10 percent tariff on the world. Trump used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as the basis for his tariffs. A number of plaintiffs challenged Trump’s authority to do so, and tonight the court unanimously agreed with the plaintiffs.