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Articles

Hong Kong Scraps Duties to Thaw Frozen Property Market

Feb 29, 2024 | realmoney.thestreet.com | Alex Frew McMillan

Hong Kong’s “cooling” measures have been so effective that both the stock and property markets are in deep freeze. Will the government’s decision to remove these special transaction taxes cause it to thaw? Hong Kong’s beleaguered property market should see transactions jump, now that the government is removing the “spicy” measures that have helped drive prices down 24.2% since August 2021.
Chinese Stocks Surge But Can the Year of the Dragon Roar?

Feb 7, 2024 | realmoney.thestreet.com | Alex Frew McMillan

Have we reached the China bottom? That's what I asked my fund-manager friend yesterday as Chinese equities surged. The blue-chip CSI 300 index jumped 3.5% to post its biggest one-day gain since November 2022. He thinks we must be there. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index soared 4.0%, its biggest gain since last July. Tech stocks led the way, up 6.8%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland businesses listed in Hong Kong rallied 4.9%.
Strong Warning Signals Persist as Markets Skate on Thin Ice

Dec 29, 2023 | realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann

Thursday's market action did not add any new evidence that would suggest altering our near-term outlook for the equity markets. While the major equity index charts remain in near-term uptrends and lack sell signals, the data dashboard is sending strong signals that stocks have a high probability of entering a rough patch over the relatively near term.
Be Careful: These Indicators Are in the Red Zone and Forecasting a Correction

Dec 27, 2023 | realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann

Our song remains the same. The bullish index chart patterns remain intact and, in our opinion, should continue to be respected until otherwise. However, the data and market valuation, discussed below, are all in the red zone, strongly suggesting the likelihood of a market correction of some importance is becoming increasingly probable. Historically, these indicators have been of real value as they have been coincident with market rally tops.
Rally Can't Erase the Cracks in the Charts

Dec 22, 2023 | realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann

We saw a snapback rally Thursday. However, the "cracks" on the index charts discussed here persist while valuation and investor psychology continue to wave red flags that have been historically prescient warning signals. As such, the weight of the evidence remains on the cautionary side of the scales in our discipline. We are not chasing price as the charts and data continue to imply better buying opportunities are in the wings.
Warning Signals Intensify as Cracks Appear in the Uptrend

Dec 21, 2023 | realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann

The market selloff on Wednesday added a little more weight to our concerns regarding near-term prospects for the major equity indexes. As discussed below, the index charts saw some fractures in their technical conditions, with several closing below their accelerated uptrend lines, while the psychology data continue to reveal an excess of bullish sentiment and forward 12-month earnings estimates have faded further, leaving valuation well extended.
Fasten Your Seatbelts, a Rough Road Is Ahead for the Stock Market

Dec 20, 2023 | realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann

While the major equity indexes closed higher Tuesday and market breadth remains bullish, we are now seeing even more warning signals appear that strongly suggest a rough road ahead for the equity markets has become more probable. Given the magnitude of the market's gains from the October lows, that would not be abnormal.
Market Warning Sign: An Excess of Optimism

Dec 18, 2023 | realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann

While the near-term trends for the major equity indexes remain bullish as is cumulative market breadth, we continue to be generally cautious. Why? Despite the charts and breadth, sentiment indicators are at levels that have historically presaged market corrections and they continue to flash red, suggesting an excess of optimism exists. Also, the forward valuation for the S&P 500 remains at a 400-basis point premium to fair value (see below).
This Market Is Skating on Very Thin Ice

Dec 13, 2023 | realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann

Tuesday's market action left the bulk of the major equity index charts still in near-term bullish trends and lacking sell signals. However, while we are not fighting the trends, we remain of the opinion that the markets are currently skating on very thin ice. Why? As discussed below, psychology data that have been historically prescient regarding indications of excessive bullish sentiment near market peaks have typically been followed by corrections of varying degrees. Let's dig into this further.
These Historically Prescient Market Indicators Are Flashing Red

Dec 4, 2023 | realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann

Our concerns that the equity markets are likely to experience some consolidation/retracement of their gains from the October lows, over the near term, have fallen on deaf ears thus far. The indexes have continued to power north with no sell signals being generated on the charts while market breadth remains positive. However, the data's warning signals continue to rise and well outweigh reward as their flashing red waring lights have intensified further as discussed below.