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Sep 11, 2024 | 
pro.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann |Helene Meisler |Doug Kass |Chris Versace
The technical picture is showing some minor improvements, but it's still largely stuck in neutral. And that pesky high-valuation still flashes yellow lights. Let's take a look at the charts and technicals. The Big Picture The major equity indexes closed mixed yesterday, with mixed New York Stock Exchange and positive Nasdaq internals as they closed near the midpoint to upper end of their intraday ranges. The charts did see a bit of improvement with two indexes shifting to neutral from bearish.
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Jun 24, 2024 | 
pro.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann |Helene Meisler |Doug Kass |Chris Versace
As we begin a new week of trading, let's check the market's dashboard. The major equity indexes closed mixed Friday with most closing near the midpoints of the session, leaving their near-term trends a mix of bullish and bearish projections. However, two indexes now have overhead resistance levels that were not present previously. Unfortunately, cumulative market breadth remains a concern as said breadth is mostly bearish.
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May 22, 2024 | 
pro.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann |Helene Meisler |Doug Kass |Chris Versace
The major equity indexes closed mixed on Tuesday as NYSE volumes rose and Nasdaq volumes dropped from the previous session. They closed at various points within their intraday ranges as three of the indexes made new closing highs. However, there was some weakening of trends on other index charts as cumulative market breadth saw some deterioration as well. In our opinion, the positive chart action on some of the indexes masked some underlying deterioration of the internal structure.
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Dec 29, 2023 | 
realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann
Thursday's market action did not add any new evidence that would suggest altering our near-term outlook for the equity markets. While the major equity index charts remain in near-term uptrends and lack sell signals, the data dashboard is sending strong signals that stocks have a high probability of entering a rough patch over the relatively near term.
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Dec 27, 2023 | 
realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann
Our song remains the same. The bullish index chart patterns remain intact and, in our opinion, should continue to be respected until otherwise. However, the data and market valuation, discussed below, are all in the red zone, strongly suggesting the likelihood of a market correction of some importance is becoming increasingly probable. Historically, these indicators have been of real value as they have been coincident with market rally tops.
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Dec 22, 2023 | 
realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann
We saw a snapback rally Thursday. However, the "cracks" on the index charts discussed here persist while valuation and investor psychology continue to wave red flags that have been historically prescient warning signals. As such, the weight of the evidence remains on the cautionary side of the scales in our discipline. We are not chasing price as the charts and data continue to imply better buying opportunities are in the wings.
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Dec 21, 2023 | 
realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann
The market selloff on Wednesday added a little more weight to our concerns regarding near-term prospects for the major equity indexes. As discussed below, the index charts saw some fractures in their technical conditions, with several closing below their accelerated uptrend lines, while the psychology data continue to reveal an excess of bullish sentiment and forward 12-month earnings estimates have faded further, leaving valuation well extended.
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Dec 20, 2023 | 
realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann
While the major equity indexes closed higher Tuesday and market breadth remains bullish, we are now seeing even more warning signals appear that strongly suggest a rough road ahead for the equity markets has become more probable. Given the magnitude of the market's gains from the October lows, that would not be abnormal.
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Dec 18, 2023 | 
realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann
While the near-term trends for the major equity indexes remain bullish as is cumulative market breadth, we continue to be generally cautious. Why? Despite the charts and breadth, sentiment indicators are at levels that have historically presaged market corrections and they continue to flash red, suggesting an excess of optimism exists. Also, the forward valuation for the S&P 500 remains at a 400-basis point premium to fair value (see below).
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Dec 13, 2023 | 
realmoney.thestreet.com | Guy Ortmann
Tuesday's market action left the bulk of the major equity index charts still in near-term bullish trends and lacking sell signals. However, while we are not fighting the trends, we remain of the opinion that the markets are currently skating on very thin ice. Why? As discussed below, psychology data that have been historically prescient regarding indications of excessive bullish sentiment near market peaks have typically been followed by corrections of varying degrees. Let's dig into this further.
