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1 week ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
Two quick announcements. The World Series of Poker began yesterday and continues through mid-July; I’ll be there beginning the week of June 9. Although I’m not going to send out a separate email about it, I’ve revised and improved the guide to the WSOP that I wrote last year. It’s particularly aimed at people who have some proficiency at poker but haven’t played the WSOP very often, a category I fell into before I became a regular at the World Series.
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1 week ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
Almost every poker player loves the World Series. It’s sort of our version of summer camp. Except, it’s a summer camp that also features the softest poker tournaments in the world. This year’s WSOP starts on May 28. I’ll be out there for the very beginning for roughly 10 days — not as long as I’d like, but it’s an election year — and then if other work is going well, back later for another stretch.
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2 weeks ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
Generally speaking, I think large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT and Claude are closer to underrated than overrated. Their adoption curve has been incredibly fast: by some measures, they’re the most rapidly growing technology in human history. It’s easy to cherry-pick examples of AI “hallucinations”; in my experience, these are becoming considerably less common, and I sometimes wonder whether people who write skeptically of LLMs are even using them at all.
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2 weeks ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
One quality you wouldn’t ordinarily associate with New Yorkers is patience. Commuters scamper to catch the subway when they hear the rumble of a train approaching, even though the next one is usually only a few minutes away. Service at restaurants in New York isn’t necessarily polite, but it’s punctual: it’s not a coincidence that the city’s favorite food, pizza, is typically served up in a New York minute.
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3 weeks ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
Beginning in 2023, I repeatedly criticized both the media and Democratic partisans for failing to take former President Biden’s age and fitness for office seriously enough. This was not exactly a popular opinion at the time: the more common complaint, at least until Biden’s disastrous debate, was that the press was covering the story too much.
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3 weeks ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
Last week, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp — one of the few Republicans to defy Trump and live to tell about it — announced that he would not seek his party’s U.S. Senate nomination in 2026, removing a hurdle for Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff. Democrats clearly do have a pathway to a Senate majority in 2028. Republicans currently control 53 Senate seats, and Democrats 47.
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4 weeks ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
I’d been studiously avoiding writing a post about the election of the new pope here at Silver Bulletin. For one thing, I don’t know anything about the Catholic Church. Maria and I covered the papal election in a recent Risky Business episode and I think it was a good segment, but mostly because we approached it at a deliberately high level of abstraction, mainly talking about the strategically interesting voting system employed by the College of Cardinals.
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1 month ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver |Eli Mckown-Dawson
We’re excited to announce that we’ve added two new features to our Trump approval ratings dashboard. First, we’re now tracking his approval ratings on a series of issues that have been especially salient early on in his presidency: the economy, immigration, trade/tariffs, and inflation:As you can see, the issue approval pattern from Trump’s first term — when the economy was generally his strongest issue, but he was often fighting losing battles on the “culture wars” — has somewhat reversed.
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1 month ago | 
natesilver.net | Nate Silver
A quick housekeeping note: April was a very busy month, and I’m still evaluating applications for theAssistant Sports Analyst position. No candidates have been contacted yet, and I greatly appreciate your patience. My goal is to block out time this weekend and contact all candidates by early next week. Welcome to edition #20 of Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions (SBSQ). This month’s version was originally going to be headlined “SBSQ #20: 5 strategy questions, 100 days in”.
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1 month ago | 
natesilver.net | Eli Mckown-Dawson |Nate Silver
Today, Canadians will head to the polls to decide how to form their next government. Throughout 2023 and 2024, polling suggested the country’s next federal election would be a rout for the Conservative Party. Justin Trudeau — Canada’s previous prime minister and a member of the Liberal Party — was deeply unpopular, and it looked like Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre would have no trouble replacing him. Something changed in 2025.