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Can Dems win Iowa? with Laura Belin

1 week ago | the-downballot.com | David Nir |Aaron Rupar |Laura Belin

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice talk with fellow Substacker Laura Belin all about Iowa!You can subscribe to Laura’s newsletter by clicking the button below:Laura tells us:Why she wasn’t shocked to hear Republican Sen. Joni Ernst might not run again—but why she still expects her to. How Democratic strength in Iowa, once a swing state, has eroded but not vanished.
Trump's war on immigrants has boomeranged

2 weeks ago | the-downballot.com | David Nir |Aaron Rupar

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice pull the curtain back on the conventional wisdom that immigration is Donald Trump’s strong suit. David and Aaron explain:Why Trump’s polling on immigration has taken a nosedive since he deployed the military to Los Angeles.
Morning Digest: Why Democrats worry they might lose Texas' second-biggest city

3 weeks ago | the-downballot.com | David Nir |Jeff Singer

San Antonio is normally a blue-leaning town, but Texas Democrats fear that their candidate could lose Saturday's officially nonpartisan election to serve as the city's next mayor. That battle pits Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, a former Biden administration official, against Republican Rolando Pablos, who once served as Texas' secretary of state.
Morning Digest: Well-known Nebraska Democrat joins race to take on Don Bacon

3 weeks ago | the-downballot.com | David Nir |Jeff Singer

Democratic state Sen. John Cavanaugh announced on Wednesday that he would challenge Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon in the Omaha-based 2nd District, the bluest House seat in the nation held by a Republican. Cavanaugh hails from a prominent local political family: His father and namesake represented the 2nd District from 1977 to 1981, while his sister, Machaela Cavanaugh, serves with him in the state's unique unicameral legislature.
The definitive report on 2024

3 weeks ago | the-downballot.com | David Nir |David Beard

Current time: 0:00 / Total time: -1:01:10Audio playback is not supported on your browser. Please upgrade. We've been subject to endless hot takes about last year's elections, but Catalist has much more compelling answers. CEO Michael Frias joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to explore his firm's detailed new report, What Happened in 2024, that uses carefully assembled voter data to understand how things really went down.
Morning Digest: John Cornyn explains why he's losing-and it's extremely unconvincing

3 weeks ago | the-downballot.com | David Nir |Jeff Singer

As yet another poll shows Texas Sen. John Cornyn trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton in next year's Republican primary, the incumbent is acknowledging that he is indeed behind—but his diagnosis of the problem may be a bit lacking. Cornyn's latest dose of bad news comes from a survey conducted by the GOP firm UpOne Insights, which finds Paxton decisively defeating Cornyn 50-28.
Democrats just turned in a massive overperformance in a majority-Black district

3 weeks ago | the-downballot.com | David Nir |Jeff Singer

Democrat Keishan Scott, a 24-year-old minister and local elected official, won Tuesday's special election for the South Carolina House in a 71-29 landslide, turning in one of the largest overperformances of the year. Scott's 41-point victory over Republican Bill Oden represented a huge improvement on Kamala Harris' narrow 51-46 margin in the 50th District, a largely rural constituency based in the Midlands in the central part of the state.
Morning Digest: Joni Ernst draws major challenger after town hall outburst

3 weeks ago | the-downballot.com | David Nir |Jeff Singer

Democratic state Rep. J.D. Scholten unexpectedly kicked off a bid against Republican Sen. Joni Ernst on Monday, saying the incumbent's derisive remarks about Medicaid cuts had spurred him to join the race.
Morning Digest: The most despised Republican in Georgia might run for Senate

3 weeks ago | the-downballot.com | David Nir |Jeff Singer

Republicans breathed a sigh of relief three weeks ago when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said she wouldn't run for the Senate next year. But what if they get stuck with someone even worse? That someone might just be state Sen. Colton Moore, who has called himself Georgia's "most conservative state senator" and said Thursday that he was considering a bid to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. "MTG and several generic Republicans have already dropped out," Colton said in a statement.
Weekly open thread

4 weeks ago | the-downballot.com | James Lambert

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