Alexandr Burilkov

1 month ago | bruegel.org | Rebecca Christie |Heather Grabbe |Guntram B. Wolff |Alexandr Burilkov

Executive summaryEuropean NATO members must raise defence spending by enough to deter through strength an irredentist Russia. This must be done possibly without the United States and when ageing populations demand higher social spending. Raising defence spending to sufficient levels could result in a doubling of current primary deficits to just over 3 percent of GDP on average. This seems likely to be a fiscally unattainable goal for this group of countries.

1 month ago | bruegel.org | Alexandr Burilkov |Guntram B. Wolff |Rebecca Christie |Niclas Poitiers

In this episode of The Sound of Economics, we examine the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape in Europe, driven by the ongoing war in Ukraine, shifting alliances, and the changing role of the United States in NATO. Host Rebecca Christie is joined by Bruegel experts Heather Grabbe and Guntram B. Wolff to discuss the critical questions facing European policymakers: What level of financial and military support is the EU prepared to provide to Ukraine?

2 months ago | bruegel.org | Rebecca Christie |Heather Grabbe |Guntram B. Wolff |Alexandr Burilkov

This is a joint publication with Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Europe needs to be able to defend itself against Russia, with or without the United States. Here, we provide initial estimates of the additional weapons and troops Europe will need to defend itself, assuming effective US withdrawal from Europe. We focus on land warfare because invasion by Russia will remain for the foreseeable future the main security challenge to Europe.