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1 month ago | 
bruegel.org | Ignacio Garcia Bercero |Rebecca Christie |Uri Dadush |Niclas Poitiers
The major turbulence being experienced by the world economy could lead to a global recession and the collapse of the norms and institutions that have been critical for stability and economic development since the Second World War. In particular, the United States has adopted a level of tariff protection last seen in the 1930s and there are signals of financial instability that could weaken the role of the dollar in the international monetary system.
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1 month ago | 
bruegel.org | Ignacio Garcia Bercero |Rebecca Christie |Uri Dadush |Niclas Poitiers
Since the suspension on 9 April by President Trump of so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ higher than 10%, the United States has announced trade agreements with the United Kingdom and China (on 8 May and 12 May, respectively). The UK agreement offers a preferential tariff rate quota (TRQ) on UK exports of steel, aluminium and cars, in exchange for preferential concessions for US beef and ethanol. The China agreement rolls back the 115% increase in tariffs that both sides introduced in early April.
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1 month ago | 
bruegel.org | Armin Steinbach |Jeromin Zettelmeyer |Rebecca Christie |Niclas Poitiers
In this episode of the Sound of Economics, we look at Germany’s budget outlook under new Chancellor Friedric Merz and whether much-needed reforms to the so-called debt brake put Berlin on a collision course with Brussels. Host Rebecca Christie is joined by Bruegel's director, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, and Bruegel non-resident fellow, Armin Steinbach, to discuss the legal and economic implications.
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2 months ago | 
bruegel.org | Niclas Poitiers |Rebecca Christie |Uri Dadush |Ignacio Garcia Bercero
President Donald Trump’s tariffs clearly pose a profound challenge to the global rules-based trading system, marking a huge shift after decades of multilateral trade liberalisation that had left tariffs at near-historic lows. The economic impact on the European Union is much less clear, however.
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2 months ago | 
bruegel.org | Ignacio Garcia Bercero |Rebecca Christie |Uri Dadush |Niclas Poitiers
After two weeks of chaos, the tariff policy of the United States under President Donald Trump appears to be converging around three elements: 1) a baseline import surcharge of 10%, with the main purpose of raising revenue; 2) protective tariffs of 25% on steel, aluminium, cars and car parts, which are likely to be extended to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors; 3) special treatment for China, although it is unclear whether the US will maintain its current prohibitive tariffs (at time of...
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2 months ago | 
bruegel.org | Ignacio Garcia Bercero |Rebecca Christie |Uri Dadush |Niclas Poitiers
President Trump’s tariffs are an economic policy mistake of historical proportions, causing more harm to the United States than to almost all of its trading partners. Even with the pause announced on 9 April on big tariff hikes (except for China), the US tariff on the European Union remains at a very high 10%, and higher for cars, steel and aluminium. The EU has already agreed countermeasures on the US steel and aluminium tariffs and continues to weigh its options.
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2 months ago | 
bruegel.org | Uri Dadush |Rebecca Christie |Ignacio Garcia Bercero |Niclas Poitiers
Following President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement of a 20% tariff on European Union imports, the EU must respond. It seems unlikely that the EU will be able to negotiate a lower tariff. Trump needs hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff revenue to cover extended and increased income tax cuts – a signature feature of the Republican agenda. He believes high tariffs will revitalise investment in US manufacturing.
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Mar 3, 2025 | 
bruegel.org | Alexandr Burilkov |Guntram B. Wolff |Rebecca Christie |Niclas Poitiers
In this episode of The Sound of Economics, we examine the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape in Europe, driven by the ongoing war in Ukraine, shifting alliances, and the changing role of the United States in NATO. Host Rebecca Christie is joined by Bruegel experts Heather Grabbe and Guntram B. Wolff to discuss the critical questions facing European policymakers: What level of financial and military support is the EU prepared to provide to Ukraine?
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Feb 19, 2025 | 
bruegel.org | Rebecca Christie |Niclas Poitiers
Ahead of Germany’s federal elections on February 23 2025, Rebecca Christie invites Jens Suedekum and Niclas Poitiers to take a look at the country’s economic situation, what needs to be fixed and how. This election may decide which fundamental economic strategy Germany pursues for the next years, with implications for Europe and the world. They discuss why it has been so hard for Berlin to change and how the next crisis may require new tools. Note: This podcast was recorded in mid January 2025.
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Feb 13, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Niclas Poitiers |Pauline Weil |Christopher Cytera |James Thomson
Under the Joe Biden administration, Europe and the US shared the common aim of fighting climate change and de-risking from China. Biden rejoined the Paris climate agreement. He wielded tariffs and subsidies to sell climate policies to American voters as rebuilding US industry. Europe pursued an ambitious green policy and became wary of Beijing’s attempt to dominate green industries. Admittedly, the allies embraced different approaches.
