Amanda Perofsky

Sep 25, 2024 | elifesciences.org | Amanda Perofsky |John Huddleston |Chelsea Hansen |John Barnes

Influenza-like illness and virological surveillance data We obtained weekly epidemiological and virological data for influenza seasons 1997–1998 to 2018–2019, at the U.S. HHS region level. We defined influenza seasons as calendar week 40 in a given year to calendar week 20 in the following year, with the exception of the 2008–2009 season, which ended in 2009 week 16 due to the emergence of the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus (Goldstein et al., 2011).

Jul 25, 2024 | nature.com | Sarabeth Mathis |Lauren White |Roni Rosenfeld |Daniel McDonald |Daniel Mcdonald |Sen Pei | +41 more

AbstractAccurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage.

Oct 3, 2023 | medrxiv.org | Amanda Perofsky |John Huddleston |Chelsea Hansen |John Barnes

AbstractInfluenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997—2019.