Andrew Novo

2 months ago | cepa.org | Edward Lucas |Andrew Novo |Stephen Blank |Philip Wasielewski

Norwegian officials like to highlight predictability as the hallmark of their approach to security. Given the northern neighborhood, it is easy to see why. Russia’s next-door Kola peninsula is the Kremlin’s nuclear bastion, a vital part of its increasingly dilapidated strategic deterrent. Even uber-hawks on Russia like me agree that it is worth maintaining “strategic stability” – the notion that neither superpower can win a nuclear war. Everyone is safer as a result.

2 months ago | cepa.org | Andrew Novo |Stephen Blank |Philip Wasielewski |Nico Lange

President Trump’s proposed peace negotiations for Ukraine will be tricky. The campaign vow to end fighting in 24 hours is gone, replaced by an ambitious, but more feasible, mandate for special envoy Lt Gen (ret.) Keith Kellogg to end the war in 100 days. Part of Kellogg’s challenge will be that in a negotiation any pre-determined timeline can help the other side. As any negotiator will tell you, the more obvious one side’s eagerness for a deal, the harder the other side will push.

2 months ago | cepa.org | Andrew Novo |Stephen Blank |Philip Wasielewski |Nico Lange

The United States and its European allies should negotiate with Russia only from a position of strength, which requires gaining greater leverage over Moscow. To achieve this, transatlantic allies should adopt a maximum pressure strategy to bring Russia to the negotiating table in good faith.  The United States and its allies should provide immediate materiel support to Ukraine without caveats, aiming to wear down Russia’s military and thereby improve Ukraine’s negotiating position.