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1 week ago | 
cepa.org | Nico Lange |Elena Davlikanova |Edward Lucas |Aura Sabadus
For weeks now, Russia’s main axis of attack in southern Donbas has been faltering. Ukraine is conducting local counterattacks near Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar and is unexpectedly pushing back against Russia. That progress has been aided by technical evolution; Ukraine has extended the range of its fiber optic drones by several kilometers, and these cannot be disrupted by Russian electronic warfare. This allows Ukraine to disable Russian artillery pieces and logistical facilities.
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3 weeks ago | 
cepa.org | Bobo Lo |Edward Lucas |Alison Mutler
While Moscow and Beijing remain strongly committed to their strategic relationship, the war in Ukraine has exposed major differences in their views on the international order. China and Russia are strategically autonomous actors that pose different challenges to US interests. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, seeks to undermine US global primacy, yet values stability in the international system as key to China’s prospects.
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1 month ago | 
cepa.org | Elisabeth Braw |Edward Lucas |Andrii Vdovychenko |Ruth Deyermond
The biennial Exercise Joint Viking, which ended on March 14, is the largest military drill in Norway and the alliance’s most important recurring Arctic war game. Without it, operational cooperation will waste and NATO armies will be less prepared to repel a Russian attack. Will there be another in 2027? And if there is, will US forces join the 10,000-strong drill? Even as Joint Viking was underway, the US military denied reports it planned to pull out of all NATO exercises from this year.
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1 month ago | 
cepa.org | Michael Peck |Steven Wills |Edward Lucas
As European leaders plan to put thousands of ground troops into Ukraine as a deterrent force following a possible ceasefire, the question arises: where will these military boots come from? British officials said on March 15 that a force of 30,000 would be assembled and that operational planning was now underway. Reports said the UK, France, Turkey, Australia and Canada would form the backbone of the deployment, and that others would help with logistics and other aid.
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1 month ago | 
cepa.org | Steven Wills |Walter C. Clemens |Timothy Garton Ash |Edward Lucas
Ukraine agreed with the US on March 11 that it will immediately engage in a 30-day ceasefire if Russian invasion forces match the pledge. The US will now speak to the Kremlin about this proposal. In return for its agreement, the US will resume intelligence sharing and arms supplies to Ukraine, and the two countries will continue talks about the mining of critical minerals. Edward Lucas, Britain, Author and analystThe ball is in Putin’s court. Finally.
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1 month ago | 
cepa.org | Fabian Hoffmann |David Kirichenko |Elisabeth Braw |Edward Lucas
The possible withdrawal of the United States forces from the European continent and the prospect that the Trump administration may not just be indifferent to its security but outright hostile have fundamentally reshaped the strategic environment. Not only has an immediate and existential threat emerged to the east, but the alliance system with the US — for nearly eight decades a core pillar of European security — appears to be in disarray.
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1 month ago | 
cepa.org | Elisabeth Braw |Edward Lucas |Julius Strauss |Dan Rice
Haltbakk Bunkers didn’t mince words. The Norwegian company, which supplies fuel to ships, including US Navy vessels, was so upset by the treatment Volodymyr Zelenskyy received in the Oval Office on February 28 that it announced a boycott of the US military. Of course, the US military has no role in Donald Trump’s and JD Vance’s on-camera attack on Zelenskyy, and likewise, the vast majority of US businesses similarly play no role in enabling Trump’s and Vance’s treatment of Ukraine.
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2 months ago | 
cepa.org | Edward Lucas |Michael Sheridan
“The British army makes me want to cry, almost,” McMaster said. “It is a professional, extremely capable army that now lacks the capacity to sustain operations.”His comments, made during a CEPA press call, came as the British army has shrunk to its smallest size since the Napoleonic era and at a time when the country is seeking to position itself as NATO’s leading European power.
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2 months ago | 
cepa.org | Edward Lucas |Andrew Novo |Stephen Blank |Philip Wasielewski
Norwegian officials like to highlight predictability as the hallmark of their approach to security. Given the northern neighborhood, it is easy to see why. Russia’s next-door Kola peninsula is the Kremlin’s nuclear bastion, a vital part of its increasingly dilapidated strategic deterrent. Even uber-hawks on Russia like me agree that it is worth maintaining “strategic stability” – the notion that neither superpower can win a nuclear war. Everyone is safer as a result.
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2 months ago | 
cepa.org | Francis Harris |Edward Lucas |Mykyta Vorobiov |Michael Peck
Since the October parliamentary elections, Georgia has been seeing near-permanent protests against what the opposition describes as a “stolen election.” It is demanding a rerun. The ruling Georgian Dream Party, which has been in power for 12 years with the support of traditionalist elements of the population, says the results are unchangeable. International criticism has not subsided either.
