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Jan 16, 2025 | 
trustnet.com | Arif Husain |T. Rowe Price
When our global fixed income portfolio managers and analysts recently gathered as a team for our usual monthly policy week meetings, our email inboxes were brimming with year‑ahead outlooks. The conclusion we came to was that, in broad strokes, everyone thinks the same.
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Oct 23, 2024 | 
moneymarketing.co.uk | Momodou Musa Touray |Darius McQuaid |Arif Husain |Darius McDermott
News and analysis delivered directly to your inboxSign up today to receive our range of news alerts including Morning News, the Daily Briefing and Latest News. Money Marketing EventsBe the first to hear about our industry-leading annual conferences and events, including the Money Marketing Awards and Money Marketing Interactive Leeds and London. Have your sayOnly registered users can post comments. As the voice of the adviser community, our content generates robust debate.
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Sep 25, 2024 | 
trustnet.com | Arif Husain |T. Rowe Price
Thin summer liquidity conditions, coupled with crowded leveraged positions, set the kindling for a potential market shock. In early August, all it took was a spark – the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) move to tighten monetary policy – to ignite an extraordinary volatility shock. However, while the yen carry trade certainly played a part, it is more a convenient ex-post narrative to explain the price action than a true driver of the volatility.
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Jul 23, 2024 | 
fixedincomenews.com.au | Arif Husain
By Arif Husain, Head of fixed income and chief investment officer, fixed income at T. Rowe Price. During our fixed income policy week discussions, participants examine dozens of charts that our portfolio managers, analysts, and economists present on an array of market topics. One that particularly stood out for me recently showed the rapid growth of nonbank lending in the U.S. over the last eight years and what that could mean for investors.
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Apr 8, 2024 | 
investordaily.com.au | Arif Husain |Jessica Penny
I expect to see very few hands—forecasts for inflation from 2021 through 2023 were wildly inaccurate.
Even many central bankers and most economists got it wrong and were forced to rethink long- standing assumptions about inflation. Put your hand down if you even whispered “transitory.”
Breakeven spreads—the market’s best measure of expected headline inflation—on US Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) ranged between 2.44 per cent(five year) and 2.28 per cent (30 year) in mid-March 2024.
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Feb 14, 2024 | 
investmentweek.co.uk | Arif Husain
Even after the late-year "Santa" rally, all-in yields in many credit sectors are near multi-decade highs, making it tempting to portfolio managers to have overweight credit allocations to maximize the yield opportunity. But credit spreads are relatively narrow and the distinct risk of an economic or financial market recession looms eventually, so managers might opt to underweight credit sectors. What's the solution to this portfolio construction dilemma?
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Dec 4, 2023 | 
moneymarketing.co.uk | Arif Husain |Ros Altmann |Catriona Standingford
The supply of high-quality global government bonds does not generate much attention because it generally does not matter for an individual market. Because these bonds are the true ‘core’ of the fixed income market, with other types of bonds priced in relation to these developed market high-quality sovereigns, there is almost always enough demand to more than offset additional issuance.
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Oct 18, 2023 | 
investmentweek.co.uk | Arif Husain
Our last blog discussed my belief that a soft landing is a fairy tale. However, many of our portfolios have been positioned short duration. That may not seem logical at first glance. Simply put, while we believe that short-dated fixed income is attractive in many places, we hold serious concerns about the long end of many global government bond markets. Thinking back to "The Four USTreasury Yield Phases of a Fed Tightening Cycle," phase three will be longer and more painful.
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Oct 16, 2023 | 
livewiremarkets.com | Arif Husain |T. Rowe Price
Supply Generally Doesn’t Matter for an Individual Government MarketThe supply of high-quality global government bonds doesn’t generate much attention because it generally doesn’t matter for an individual market. Because these bonds are the true “core” of the fixed income market, with other types of bonds priced in relation to these developed market, high-quality sovereigns, there is almost always enough demand to more than offset additional issuance.
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Sep 25, 2023 | 
livewiremarkets.com | Arif Husain |T. Rowe Price
A soft landing is merely a comfortable fairy tale, backfitted to match the prevailing market narrative and based on backward-looking unique circumstances. A hard landing is coming—it’s just a matter of when. The temporary benefits of looser financial conditions and U.S. fiscal spending will soon wear off. When global economic activity has been near current levels in past cycles, central banks were already cutting rates. But now they are still tightening.
