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5 days ago | 
thearmchairtrader.com | Chris Weston
Geopolitical events were in sharp focus over the weekend after US strikes on Iran, but President Trump had time to criticise the Fed again too. This week, a relatively light data docket awaits. By Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist, Pepperstone. Where we standUgh, I can’t believe I’m doing this again, but we have to talk about the whole Trump-Powell dynamic once more.
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1 week ago | 
thearmchairtrader.com | Chris Weston
It feels premature to follow the well-subscribed ‘buy the dip’ mantra just yet, but there are clear reasons to trim back on risk exposure or to layer on portfolio hedges. Either through short equity index positions (to offset core portfolio longs), increasing gold longs or buying volatility.
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2 weeks ago | 
thearmchairtrader.com | Chris Weston
By Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist, Pepperstone A goldilocks jobs report, the S&P 500 trading back above 6k, and the sun shining in the Square Mile. As Fridays go, last Friday was a pretty good one!In terms of that jobs report, headline nonfarm payrolls rose +139k in May, a smidgen above expectations, but well above the breakeven rate required for growth in employment to keep pace with the increasing size of the labour force.
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3 weeks ago | 
thearmchairtrader.com | Chris Weston
By Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist, Pepperstone I regret to inform you that I must yet again start one of these notes on the subject of tariffs. We can all hope that, one day, there might be something more interesting to talk about!Anyway, it’s safe to say that President Trump wasn’t exactly pleased when he was informed by a journalist of the TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out – trade in the Oval Office last week.
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1 month ago | 
thearmchairtrader.com | Chris Weston
By Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist, PepperstoneGuess who’s back, back again? Tariffs are back, tell a friend. Oh, yes, far from it being a calm Friday to ease us into a long weekend, and long weekend itself, President Trump had other ideas. Firstly, it was Apple NASDAQ:AAPL that found themselves in the President’s firing line, with Trump once again expressing his displeasure with iPhones being manufactured overseas, and not in the US.
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1 month ago | 
thearmchairtrader.com | Chris Weston
As we roll into the new trading week the US fiscal position continues to get increasing attention, with the House Budget Committee having a second attempt today at passing Trump’s reconciliation bill.
We also look any further fallout from the Moody’s downgrading the US sovereign rating, although in reality this is semantics at play and the ratings change should have minimal lasting impact on the US Treasury market or swap spreads.
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1 month ago | 
thearmchairtrader.com | Chris Weston
We start the new trading week with the oil markets getting increased attention with the OPEC+ alliance clearly fractured, with the Saudis pulling the threat of further output increases if there isn’t complete adherence to the set output limits – Brent crude futures open -4.2% as a result.
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2 months ago | 
thearmchairtrader.com | Chris Weston
By Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist, PepperstoneAnother day of nonsense on the trade/tariff front on Friday; and yes, you’d be correct in thinking that all this is getting as tiresome as my tone suggests. In fact, it wasn’t just on the trade front that there were a deluge of headlines as the week wrapped up, but on almost every front imaginable, courtesy of a wide-ranging TIME interview with President Trump.
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2 months ago | 
thearmchairtrader.com | Chris Weston
The Easter break is over, back to the grindstone we go. By Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist, PepperstoneBack we go, though, to a market that is trading on the back of almost entirely the same themes that it was prior to the long weekend. Namely, a distinct lack of desire to take on risk, and notable concerns over the investability of the United States.
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2 months ago | 
thearmchairtrader.com | Chris Weston |Michael Brown
Surely this week can’t be quite as crazy as last. Surely?! No, I’m not going to take my chances on that one either, given how choppy things have been of late. By Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist, PepperstoneAnyway, Friday. Another day, another tariff. At least that was the main macro theme, with China upping their levy on US goods imports to 125%, in retaliation to the retaliatory tariffs that were retaliation for retaliatory tariffs imposed earlier last week.
