Cleo Nardo

Nov 22, 2024 | lesswrong.com | Cleo Nardo

Imagine a sequence of binary outcomes generated independently and identically by some stochastic process. After observing N outcomes, with n successes, Laplace's Rule of Succession suggests that our confidence in another success should be (n+1)/(N+2). This corresponds to a uniform prior over [0,1] for the underlying probability. But should we really be uniform about probabilities?

Jun 21, 2024 | lesswrong.com | Cleo Nardo

“My problem is: What are those objects we are adding up? I have no objection to adding them up if there's something to add.” — Kenneth ArrowAggregative principles state that a social planner should make decisions as if they will face the aggregated personal outcomes of every individual in the population. Different modes of aggregation generate different aggregative principles.

Jun 7, 2024 | lesswrong.com | Cleo Nardo

Making models slightly dumber could be a useful agenda, especially if labs are implementing Responsible Scaling Policies (RSPs).

Jun 5, 2024 | lesswrong.com | Cleo Nardo |Charlie Steiner

1.1. Three aggregative principlesThis article examines aggregative principles of social justice. These principles state that a social planner should make decisions as if they will face the aggregated personal outcomes of every individual in the population. Different conceptions of aggregation generate different aggregative principles. Aggregative principles avoid many theoretical pitfalls of utilitarian principles.

Oct 20, 2023 | lesswrong.com | Daniel Kokotajlo |Cleo Nardo |Mateusz Bagiński |Nathaniel Monson

[This comment got long. The TLDR is that, on my proposal, all [?[1]] instances of shutdown-resistance are already strictly dispreferred to no-resistance, so shutdown-resisting actions won’t be chosen. Trammelling won’t stop shutdown-resistance from being strictly dispreferred to no-resistance because trammelling only turns preferential gaps into strict preferences. Trammelling won’t remove or overturn already-existing strict preferences.]Your comment suggests a nice way to think about things.