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Jan 6, 2025 | 
eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan
publications_detail.inc
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Jan 5, 2025 | 
eurasiagroup.net | Cliff Kupchan |Ian Bremmer
EURASIA GROUP'S TOP RISKS FOR 2025Top Risks is Eurasia Group's annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. This year's report was published on 6 January 2025.
OverviewWe are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can, while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must.
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Jan 4, 2025 | 
eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan
The détente established by presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping at Woodside in November 2023 kept US-China tensions contained last year. Donald Trump's return to office will break this stability, unleashing unmanaged decoupling in the world's most important geopolitical relationship and increasing the risk of economic disruption and crisis. The relationship will change trajectory because of a combination of factors, most critically trade policy.
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Jan 4, 2025 | 
eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan
The Middle East will remain a combustible environment in 2025, for one big reason: Iran hasn't been this weak in decades. Iran's geopolitical position has been dealt a series of devastating blows since the 7 October attacks. First, its client Hamas was defeated by Israel's relentless offensive in Gaza.
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Jan 4, 2025 | 
eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan
AI's power and capabilities will continue to grow in 2025, with new models able to act autonomously, create self-replicas, and further blur human-machine boundaries. But as most governments opt for lighter-touch regulation and international cooperation falters, the risks and collateral damage from unbound AI will multiply.
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Jan 4, 2025 | 
eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan
This risk stems from a deepening G-Zero (please see Top Risk #1: The G-Zero wins) where the world's most powerful actors—especially a politically divided and dysfunctional America—are abdicating global leadership. This vacuum causes greater geopolitical conflict, disruption, and instability; reduces global governance and multilateral cooperation on global public goods; and emboldens rogue-state and non-state actors.
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Jan 4, 2025 | 
eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and her Morena party won last year's elections in a landslide. She now has a mandate and few checks on her executive power. But Sheinbaum will face formidable challenges this year in relations with the United States at a time of ongoing constitutional overhauls and fiscal stresses at home. Her diplomatic and governance skills will be quickly tested. To read the full risk, download the report.
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Jan 4, 2025 | 
eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan
Global markets are riding high on hopes of a strengthening global economic expansion in 2025. They're in for a rude awakening. The world's two largest economies are set to export disruption to everyone else this year, short-circuiting the global recovery and accelerating geoeconomic fragmentation. China's economy is experiencing its weakest performance in decades (please see last year's Top Risk #6: No China recovery).
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Jan 4, 2025 | 
eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan
Eurasia Group has warned for over a decade now about the dangers of a G-Zero world: an era when no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order. That global leadership deficit is growing critically dangerous.
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Jan 4, 2025 | 
eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan
Donald Trump's second term will not be like his first. Emboldened by the scale of his 2024 electoral triumph and the firm support of a unified Republican Party, Trump is coming into office more experienced and better organized than in 2017, surrounded by battle-hardened loyalists with a stronger sense of how to wield the levers of bureaucratic control.
