Eurasia Group

Eurasia Group stands out as the top global firm specializing in political risk research and consulting. Established in 1998, we assist clients in navigating the political landscape to make well-informed business choices in various countries. Our team of research analysts consists of skilled social scientists who hold advanced degrees, possess substantial professional backgrounds, and speak multiple languages. Our main office is located in New York, with additional locations in Washington, DC, San Francisco, London, São Paulo, and Singapore. Moreover, we benefit from a wide-ranging network of experts across the globe.

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Jan 6, 2025 | eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan

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The Top Risks of 2025

Jan 5, 2025 | eurasiagroup.net | Cliff Kupchan |Ian Bremmer

EURASIA GROUP'S TOP RISKS FOR 2025Top Risks is Eurasia Group's annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. This year's report was published on 6 January 2025. OverviewWe are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can, while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must.
US-China breakdown: Eurasia Group's #3 Top Risk of 2025

Jan 4, 2025 | eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan

The détente established by presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping at Woodside in November 2023 kept US-China tensions contained last year. Donald Trump's return to office will break this stability, unleashing unmanaged decoupling in the world's most important geopolitical relationship and increasing the risk of economic disruption and crisis. The relationship will change trajectory because of a combination of factors, most critically trade policy.
Iran on the ropes: Eurasia Group's #6 Top Risk of 2025

Jan 4, 2025 | eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan

The Middle East will remain a combustible environment in 2025, for one big reason: Iran hasn't been this weak in decades. Iran's geopolitical position has been dealt a series of devastating blows since the 7 October attacks. First, its client Hamas was defeated by Israel's relentless offensive in Gaza.
AI unbound: Eurasia Group's #8 Top Risk of 2025

Jan 4, 2025 | eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan

AI's power and capabilities will continue to grow in 2025, with new models able to act autonomously, create self-replicas, and further blur human-machine boundaries. But as most governments opt for lighter-touch regulation and international cooperation falters, the risks and collateral damage from unbound AI will multiply.
Ungoverned spaces: Eurasia Group's #9 Top Risk of 2025

Jan 4, 2025 | eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan

This risk stems from a deepening G-Zero (please see Top Risk #1: The G-Zero wins) where the world's most powerful actors—especially a politically divided and dysfunctional America—are abdicating global leadership. This vacuum causes greater geopolitical conflict, disruption, and instability; reduces global governance and multilateral cooperation on global public goods; and emboldens rogue-state and non-state actors.
Mexican standoff: Eurasia Group's #10 Top Risk of 2025

Jan 4, 2025 | eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and her Morena party won last year's elections in a landslide. She now has a mandate and few checks on her executive power. But Sheinbaum will face formidable challenges this year in relations with the United States at a time of ongoing constitutional overhauls and fiscal stresses at home. Her diplomatic and governance skills will be quickly tested. To read the full risk, download the report.
Beggar thy world: Eurasia Group's #7 Top Risk of 2025

Jan 4, 2025 | eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan

Global markets are riding high on hopes of a strengthening global economic expansion in 2025. They're in for a rude awakening. The world's two largest economies are set to export disruption to everyone else this year, short-circuiting the global recovery and accelerating geoeconomic fragmentation. China's economy is experiencing its weakest performance in decades (please see last year's Top Risk #6: No China recovery).
The G-Zero wins: Eurasia Group's #1 Top Risk of 2025

Jan 4, 2025 | eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan

Eurasia Group has warned for over a decade now about the dangers of a G-Zero world: an era when no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order. That global leadership deficit is growing critically dangerous.
Rule of Don: Eurasia Group's #2 Top Risk of 2025

Jan 4, 2025 | eurasiagroup.net | Ian Bremmer |Cliff Kupchan

Donald Trump's second term will not be like his first. Emboldened by the scale of his 2024 electoral triumph and the firm support of a unified Republican Party, Trump is coming into office more experienced and better organized than in 2017, surrounded by battle-hardened loyalists with a stronger sense of how to wield the levers of bureaucratic control.