Colin Rallings

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Articles

Rallings & Thrasher: How Reform delivered shock to two-party system

1 week ago | lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

The proportion of votes needed to win a seat tumbled to its lowest ever, one of a number of nadirs in a remarkable set of local elections, write psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael ThrasherReform UK achieved one of the most remarkable local election performances, gaining almost 700 seats, majority control of 10 of the councils being contested, and two of the combined authority mayors.
Had elections been held everywhere, Reform would have come top

1 week ago | thetimes.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher
Had elections been held everywhere, Reform would have come top

1 week ago | thetimes.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher
Local elections: Councils to watch

1 month ago | lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

Psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher on the most interesting contests at this May's local elections. Read their full analysis here. Lincolnshire (Con) - Only the Conservatives have ever had a majority here and in 2021 they took more than half the vote and won over three-quarters of the seats. With Labour far behind and with a single parliamentary constituency in the county (Lincoln), the focus is likely to be on Reform’s chances.
Rallings & Thrasher: Reform is the wildcard in ‘capricious’ set of elections

1 month ago | lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

Conservative losses are inevitable but Nigel Farage’s party needs to translate vote share into seats won, write psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael ThrasherThis May’s rather truncated set of local elections still demand attention. They are likely to provide further evidence that we now live in a fluid and multi-party political environment and that the electorate is highly volatile.
Rallings & Thrasher: 'Others' come out on top as Conservatives back to the 1990s

May 8, 2024 | lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

Despite the balance shifting generally from Conservative to Labour in many places a different explanation for results is required, write psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael ThrasherThe Conservative party registered one of its worst ever performances in any set of local elections. These results, set alongside the heavy loss of seats and councils incurred last year, mean the party’s share of council seats has fallen to a level not seen since the late 1990s.
Think Labour is destined to win big? Our figures might give you pause

May 4, 2024 | thetimes.co.uk | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

There can be little dispute that the Tories took a battering in last week’s elections across England. What is more at issue is how well Labour did. The result in the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election suggests a party on the verge of a landslide return to government. The local elections, on the other hand, paint a more nuanced picture.
Are the local elections really an open goal for Labour?

Apr 20, 2024 | thetimes.co.uk | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

The Tories must brace themselves for a damaging set of results and subsequent headlines when voters go to the polls at the English local elections on May 2. After six parliamentary by-election defeats in the past 12 months and with dire opinion poll ratings, they now defend council seats mainly won at a recent high-water mark for the party.
Rallings & Thrasher: Conservatives set to lose half of contested seats

Mar 26, 2024 | lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

The national polls mean Tory losses are inevitable, but will Labour or Independents be the main beneficiaries? As if their current standing in the opinion polls is not bad enough news, the Conservatives face difficult local elections in England on 2 May. A good proportion of the seats falling vacant this year were last fought in 2021 when the Johnson government was still enjoying something of a post-Brexit, mid-covid honeymoon.
Mayoral elections: Houchen and Street must hope for name recognition

Mar 26, 2024 | lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

Psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher on what to expect from the combined authority mayoral contestsThe 11 mayoral contests - in London, nine combined authorities and for Salford City Council - vary from the predictable to the fascinating. No one is expecting Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester CA or Steve Rotherham in Liverpool City Region CA to lose, or indeed the Labour incumbents in South and West Yorkshire CAs. And Sadiq Khan looks safe in London.