Colin Rallings

3 weeks ago | lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

Conservative losses are inevitable but Nigel Farage’s party needs to translate vote share into seats won, write psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael ThrasherThis May’s rather truncated set of local elections still demand attention. They are likely to provide further evidence that we now live in a fluid and multi-party political environment and that the electorate is highly volatile.

May 8, 2024 | lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

Despite the balance shifting generally from Conservative to Labour in many places a different explanation for results is required, write psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael ThrasherThe Conservative party registered one of its worst ever performances in any set of local elections. These results, set alongside the heavy loss of seats and councils incurred last year, mean the party’s share of council seats has fallen to a level not seen since the late 1990s.

May 4, 2024 | thetimes.co.uk | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

There can be little dispute that the Tories took a battering in last week’s elections across England. What is more at issue is how well Labour did. The result in the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election suggests a party on the verge of a landslide return to government. The local elections, on the other hand, paint a more nuanced picture.

Apr 20, 2024 | thetimes.co.uk | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

The Tories must brace themselves for a damaging set of results and subsequent headlines when voters go to the polls at the English local elections on May 2. After six parliamentary by-election defeats in the past 12 months and with dire opinion poll ratings, they now defend council seats mainly won at a recent high-water mark for the party.

Mar 26, 2024 | lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher

The national polls mean Tory losses are inevitable, but will Labour or Independents be the main beneficiaries? As if their current standing in the opinion polls is not bad enough news, the Conservatives face difficult local elections in England on 2 May. A good proportion of the seats falling vacant this year were last fought in 2021 when the Johnson government was still enjoying something of a post-Brexit, mid-covid honeymoon.