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1 month ago | 
lgafirst.co.uk | Professors Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher
The council elections on 1 May opened a fissure in the pattern of local government in England. Everybody assumed that Reform UK was going to do well but the scale of its victory came as a surprise, with the party winning nearly 700 council seats from a standing start. Much of the discussion among other political parties since has been about the potential longer-term implications of the Reform surge.
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1 month ago | 
lgafirst.co.uk | Professors Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher
The council elections on 1 May opened a fissure in the pattern of local government in England. Everybody assumed that Reform UK was going to do well but the scale of its victory came as a surprise, with the party winning nearly 700 council seats from a standing start. Much of the discussion among other political parties since has been about the potential longer-term implications of the Reform surge.
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1 month ago | 
lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher
The proportion of votes needed to win a seat tumbled to its lowest ever, one of a number of nadirs in a remarkable set of local elections, write psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael ThrasherReform UK achieved one of the most remarkable local election performances, gaining almost 700 seats, majority control of 10 of the councils being contested, and two of the combined authority mayors.
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1 month ago | 
thetimes.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher
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1 month ago | 
thetimes.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher
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1 month ago | 
news.sky.com | Michael Thrasher
Based on an analysis of 1,067 of 1,400 voting areas, the current national share estimate puts Reform on 32%. This is the first time that a party other than Conservative or Labour has led at this stage of the votes being counted. Labour is currently placed second on 19% with the Conservatives only one point behind on 18%. This is the lowest total for both parties individually and combined since 1973 when these estimates were first calculated. The Liberal Democrats have 16% with the Greens on 7%.
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2 months ago | 
lgafirst.co.uk | Professors Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher
Many of the Conservative councillors who face re-election on 1 May have benefited from events. In 2017, in the midst of a general election campaign, their party gained hundreds of seats. In 2021, the so-called ‘vaccine bounce’ helped the Conservatives, under Prime Minister Boris Johnson, to win nearly two-thirds of all vacancies as they registered their best local election performance since 2008. Now things look rather different.
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2 months ago | 
lgafirst.co.uk | Professors Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher
Recent by-elections show a trend towards higher candidate numbers: almost half the contests last year had five or more candidates on the ballot. This year, that proportion has risen to almost 60 per cent, largely because Reform is now contesting more vacancies. Nominations for the 1 May elections, too, show Reform leading the way with 1,630 candidates for the 1,641 seats on offer, a 99.3 per cent contestation rate.
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2 months ago | 
lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher
Psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher on the most interesting contests at this May's local elections. Read their full analysis here. Lincolnshire (Con) - Only the Conservatives have ever had a majority here and in 2021 they took more than half the vote and won over three-quarters of the seats. With Labour far behind and with a single parliamentary constituency in the county (Lincoln), the focus is likely to be on Reform’s chances.
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2 months ago | 
lgcplus.com | Colin Rallings |Michael Thrasher
Conservative losses are inevitable but Nigel Farage’s party needs to translate vote share into seats won, write psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael ThrasherThis May’s rather truncated set of local elections still demand attention. They are likely to provide further evidence that we now live in a fluid and multi-party political environment and that the electorate is highly volatile.
