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Craig Caffrey

London

Head, Defence Markets and Data at Aviation Week

Just an analyst. Defence spending and military aircraft programmes. Aviation Week, ex-Jane's

Featured in: Favicon aviationweek.com Favicon janes.com

Articles

  • Budget Brief: Fiscal Realities Constrain European Ambition

    2 weeks ago | aviationweek.com | Craig Caffrey

    Denmark's Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen (center), alongside other European defense ministers in Warsaw last week. Denmark and other nordic countries have implemented defense spending increases in excess of 70%. European defense spending may be growing faster now than at any time since World War II, but trends continue to vary significantly from country to country. In Poland, spending is up 181% in real terms compared to 2021 levels.

  • Budget Brief: Australian Budget Growth Gathers Pace

    3 weeks ago | aviationweek.com | Craig Caffrey

    With a general election looming, Australia announced an early 2025-26 budget which included a boost to defense spending despite a wider focus on tax cuts ahead of the polls opening on May 3. Funding for the country's Defense Department (DOD) will increase by 7.5% compared to the 2024-25 budget...

  • Budget Brief: Europe Plans For Further Defense Spending Growth

    1 month ago | aviationweek.com | Craig Caffrey

    Over the last three years, European defense spending has grown faster than at any time since World War II. This year Europe will collectively spend more than $500 billion on defense compared to less than $400 billion in 2021, a real-terms increase of around 30%. Investment in new defense equipment...

  • Budget Brief: Defense Defies Chinese Economic Slowdown

    1 month ago | aviationweek.com | Craig Caffrey

    China's defense budget was announced on the fringes of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. With all eyes on the transatlantic spat between the new administration in Washington and its allies in Europe, China quietly released details of its budget plans for 2025, which include a 7.2% increase for military spending. Announced, as has become customary, on the fringes of the annual National...

  • Budget Brief: The Reality Of Britain’s 2.5% GDP Defense Spending Pledge

    1 month ago | aviationweek.com | Craig Caffrey

    Against a backdrop of ever more strained relations between the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Canada, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced last week that the UK would raise defense expenditure to 2.5% of GDP by the 2027-28 budget, up from 2.3% today. The move—according to the...

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Craig Caffrey
Craig Caffrey @Craig_Caffrey_
23 Jan 25

If you're wondering what 5% GDP looks like for NATO, it would involve Europe/Canada raising defence spend by around 150% from the $507bn today to $1,255bn. Highly unlikely but a starting point for talks that may well end up with a new 3% target agreed at the NATO summit in June. https://t.co/g1vcu2SFwz

Craig Caffrey
Craig Caffrey @Craig_Caffrey_
14 Nov 24

RT @MJouppiAW: Seeing a lot of hot takes on J-35 vs F-35. There are trade-offs to every design. With F-35 being "chonky", it carries 18,000…

Craig Caffrey
Craig Caffrey @Craig_Caffrey_
6 Nov 24

Re-election of President Trump will bolster calls for higher European defence spending. There's been progress already though. NATO has two spending guidelines: spend 2% GDP, and spend 20% on equipment. In 2016 3/29 members met both benchmarks. In 2024 its 23/31. See chart. https://t.co/YVZI4CueMc