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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | Padhraic Garvey |Deepali Bhargava
We identify a neutral Reserve Bank of Australia rate at around 3.6%. The theory here is centered on a tolerance for CPI inflation up to 3%, with a moderate real rate added to that. It is also in line with the average RBA rate over the past three decades, a period long enough to back out numerous cycles and extremes on both ends. It’s against the 3.6% area reference rate that we confront the current curve against.
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Jan 16, 2025 | 
flipboard.com | Deepali Bhargava |Lynn Song
8 hours agoIn his first public comments since the Dec. 4 shooting of United Healthcare chief executive Brian Thompson, United HealthGroup chief executive Andrew Witty expressed condolences for “the murder of our friend” before declaring, “The health system needs to function better.” The comments, delivered …
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Jan 16, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | Deepali Bhargava |Lynn Song
Japan: BoJ rate decision is a close call – but we expect a rate hike The highlight of the week is the Bank of Japan's meeting on 24 January. Recent inflation and wage data have been encouraging and support the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates at next week’s meeting. Latest comments from Bank of Japan officials have also shown increased confidence in sustainable wage growth.
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Jan 13, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | Lynn Song |Deepali Bhargava
FXFX Talking Asia FX Talking: USD/CNY remains the major battleground China's currency devaluation in 1992 was blamed by some for the late '90s Asian FX crisis. Today, the investment world still closely watches the USD/CNY exchange rate to set the tone for USD/Asia. Is China going to hold the line around here (7.32/34) in onshore USD/CNY? Or will it cave in to immense pressure from higher US yields and a mighty dollar to spark a round of competitive devaluations across the region?
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Dec 10, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Deepali Bhargava
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in line with our expectations. The central bank reiterated that underlying inflation remains high and the outlook is too uncertain, however it did indicate that inflation is moderating, and the board is gaining some confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target.
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Dec 6, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Deepali Bhargava
No change in repo rate, but RBI cut CRR to address liquidity tighteningThe Reserve Bank of India left the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% but cut the cash reserve ratio by 50bp to 4%, in line with our and consensus expectations. The monetary policy stance was left unchanged at neutral. 10-year yields went up by 4bp to 6.71% as part of the market was expecting the RBI to cut rates today.
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Dec 5, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Robert Carnell |Lynn Song |Deepali Bhargava
The big event next week will be the annual Central Economic Work Conference. While numerical targets are not expected to be the focus – as this is typically set at the Two Sessions – it nonetheless will be the market’s next window into how policymakers approach next year. We will be watching to see if there's any shift in tone on fiscal/monetary policy (from the current proactive/prudent stances respectively).
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Dec 5, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Deepali Bhargava
India is likely to remain the fastest-growing country in the region in 2025, although that growth will be weaker than in 2024. Inflation should remain well within the central bank’s target, and the local currency should outperform.
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Dec 1, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Deepali Bhargava |Lynn Song
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: Treasuries continued to rally on Friday, with 10-year yields dropping a further 9bps to 4.16%. 2-year yields fell 7bps to 4.15%. The proposed appointment of new US treasury secretary Bessent and expectations that actual tariff policy measures might be less onerous helped yields test the downside. G-10 currencies were mostly lower vs the dollar, and Asians were mixed, with IDR and PHP registering mild gains.
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Nov 28, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Robert Carnell |Lynn Song |Deepali Bhargava
China: PMI in focus PMI data will be in focus in the week ahead. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI on Saturday morning. We are currently expecting a slight uptick in the manufacturing PMI to 50.3 from 50.1, which would send another positive signal for recent growth stabilisation. The Caixin manufacturing PMI is set for release on Monday.
