Robert Carnell

Dec 5, 2024 | think.ing.com | Robert Carnell |Lynn Song |Deepali Bhargava

The big event next week will be the annual Central Economic Work Conference. While numerical targets are not expected to be the focus – as this is typically set at the Two Sessions – it nonetheless will be the market’s next window into how policymakers approach next year. We will be watching to see if there's any shift in tone on fiscal/monetary policy (from the current proactive/prudent stances respectively).

Dec 3, 2024 | think.ing.com | Robert Carnell

3Q24 GDP for Australia missed on the downside, coming in at 0.3% QoQ, well below the 0.5% figure that had been forecast. However, that consensus figure looked in doubt after yesterday's net export contribution figures were published. These showed a smaller contribution to GDP from net exports (+0.1pp). While this is sometimes offset elsewhere (usually inventories) in this case, it turned out to be fully reflected in the numbers.

Dec 2, 2024 | think.ing.com | Robert Carnell

Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: On an inconclusive data day, markets read what they wanted to into some comments from Fed speakers and the macro releases. Treasury bond yields rose slightly, despite the Fed’s Christopher Waller and John Williams suggesting they leaned towards another cut in December. The dataflow was from the manufacturing ISM, and was a positive surprise, though it also contained elements suggesting price moderation, so it could have been read either way.

Nov 28, 2024 | think.ing.com | Robert Carnell

Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: With the US closed for Thanksgiving yesterday, and many market participants likely extending the holiday to the weekend, there isn’t too much action in financial markets to talk about. No US Treasury prices obviously. But bond yields were down in Europe. 10Y German bund yields dropped 3.4bp to 2.124%, and French 10Y yields fell 7.3bp, taking the yield down to 2.943%.

Nov 28, 2024 | flipboard.com | Robert Carnell

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