Erin Covey

Washington, D.C., United States

U.S. House Analyst at The Cook Political Report

U.S. House Editor at @CookPolitical. Contributing author to @The_Almanac. Formerly @InsideElections, @NJHotline, @NPR, @CSPAN.

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Articles

2026 Maine House Analysis: LePage Returns to Take on Golden

1 week ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

Though Maine has consistently voted for Democratic presidential candidates for the past three decades, its congressional delegation is ideologically diverse: it includes an independent senator who caucuses with Democrats, a moderate Republican senator, a liberal stalwart, and House Democrats’ most moderate member. The 1st District, running along the southern coast, is comfortably blue, and longtime Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree should easily win reelection next year.
Louisiana House 2026: Awaiting the Supreme Court’s Racial Gerrymandering Ruling

2 weeks ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

The 2024 election cycle was momentous for Black Louisianans — for the first time in nearly three decades, the state had two majority-Black districts. Though they make up a third of the state’s population, just one of the state’s six congressional districts was majority-Black under the state’s original post-2020 Census congressional map.
Open House Seats Present Thorny Situations for Both Parties

3 weeks ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

Incumbency may not be what it used to be, but most sitting House members still hold at least a slight advantage over candidates who challenge them. The benefits to being a sitting member include access to fundraising networks, support from outside groups, and local relationships that take time to develop. That incumbency advantage is often heightened in competitive districts, where a well-established personal brand can make the difference between reelection and defeat.
2026 Iowa House Analysis: Parties Prepare for Two Barnburner Races

1 month ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

Iowa’s rightward trend over the past decade has continually crushed Democrats’ hopes. In 2022, Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne’s loss left the party completely locked out of the delegation. And their attempts to oust GOP Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks fell short last November. But 2026 could provide better opportunities.
With Angie Craig's Senate Run, Minnesota’s 2nd District Moves From Solid to Likely Democratic

1 month ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

With Rep. Angie Craig’s announcement that she’s running for Minnesota’s open Senate seat, House Democrats are losing one of their strongest incumbents. But Democrats remain heavily favored to hold this seat even without her. Craig’s electoral dominance — thanks to her moderate record and fundraising skills — has kept this seat out of Republicans’ reach for the past several election cycles.
Wisconsin’s 3rd District Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up

1 month ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

If Democrats hope to take back the House in 2026, they’ll almost certainly need to flip districts that voted for Donald Trump last November. And their best opportunities are against Republican members who already have a record of underperforming the president. Wisconsin’s sprawling, largely rural 3rd District voted for Trump by a seven-point margin in 2024. But Republican Rep.
2026 Indiana House Analysis: Messy Primaries Loom for Both Parties

1 month ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

Indiana’s nine-member House delegation has seen serious turnover during the past few election cycles. All but one member has been elected since 2018, and three were just elected last November. Currently, the Hoosier State delegation is relatively young, and most members seem likely to hold their seats for the indefinite future. At 79 years old, Republican Rep. Jim Baird is the outlier — the other members are all in their 40s and 50s.
Vulnerable House Republicans Take Early Lead in Fundraising

1 month ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

For the past several election cycles, Democrats have had a significant fundraising advantage over Republicans. And even with massive investments from Republican super PACs, Democrats often still outspend Republicans in the most competitive contests — in fact, they had a spending advantage in all but two of the 20 most expensive House races of 2024. But ahead of the 2026 midterms, vulnerable Republican incumbents have established an early lead in fundraising.
2026 Idaho House Analysis: Republicans Eye a Rare Potential Open Seat

1 month ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

Thanks to rapid population growth across the Mountain West, Idaho is on track to gain a third congressional district in 2032. Though the state remains a deep shade of red — Donald Trump won it by 37 points in 2024 — a third congressional district could have the potential to be competitive, since the state’s redistricting process is controlled by a bipartisan commission.
Breaking Down the Early Primary Challenges to House Democrats

1 month ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

As liberal voters become increasingly frustrated by their leaders’ response to the Trump presidency, a crop of young Democrats is attempting to direct that anger at longtime members of Congress. “What if we didn’t suck?” Kat Abughazaleh, who’s primarying Illinois Rep. Jan Schakowsky, asks in her launch video. “If you want to know why we Democrats are so bad at fighting back against Trump, look at guys like my former boss,” former California Rep. Brad Sherman staffer Jake Rakov tells the camera.