The Cook Political Report

Established in 1984, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter is a neutral, independent newsletter that offers in-depth analysis of elections and campaigns related to the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors, and the Presidency, along with insights into American political trends. Its readership includes a diverse array of subscribers such as lobbyists, trade organizations, businesses, labor unions, Members of Congress, political action committees, and various interest groups from across the political landscape. These subscribers depend on The Cook Political Report for unbiased information and analysis regarding the candidates in various races, key dynamics at play, current frontrunners, and critical factors to watch as the campaigns unfold.

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Cook PVI Underscores Democrats’ Complex 2026 Math Problem

1 week ago | cookpolitical.com | Matthew Klein

Last week’s 2025 Cook Partisan Voting Index release underscored two important dynamics in the battle for House control: Democrats have to play an unusually robust game of defense for a party out of power, and they have no choice but to get busy competing on tough turf. Of the 87 districts with Cook PVI values between D+5 and R+5 — The Cook Political Report’s longstanding metric of races most likely to become competitive — 56 (about 64%) currently rest in Democratic hands.
Dems Play Defense, but Republicans Still Have the Downside Risk

1 week ago | cookpolitical.com | Charlie Cook

Although the November 2026 midterm elections are a full 19 months away, the turbulence in the economy leads us to wonder whether President Trump will be a liability for the Republican Party in defending their Senate and House majorities, or if he will not be a determinative factor at all. During Trump’s first term, his highest Gallup Poll approval rating was 49 percent, with a low of 34 percent.
Reynolds Retirement Cues a Republican Field of Dreams

1 week ago | cookpolitical.com | Matthew Klein

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds surprised the political world on Friday by announcing that she would not pursue reelection to a third full term, kicking off a scramble to succeed her. The Republican’s decision came just one day after Morning Consult released a report that named her the nation’s most unpopular governor for a fifth straight quarter — and the only one with an approval rating underwater. Reynolds’ poor image in Iowa has been fueled by an onslaught of ire from all sides.
Breaking Down the Early Primary Challenges to House Democrats

2 weeks ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

As liberal voters become increasingly frustrated by their leaders’ response to the Trump presidency, a crop of young Democrats is attempting to direct that anger at longtime members of Congress. “What if we didn’t suck?” Kat Abughazaleh, who’s primarying Illinois Rep. Jan Schakowsky, asks in her launch video. “If you want to know why we Democrats are so bad at fighting back against Trump, look at guys like my former boss,” former California Rep. Brad Sherman staffer Jake Rakov tells the camera.
GOP Sweats and Democrats Dream as the Lone Star State Primary Heats Up

2 weeks ago | cookpolitical.com | Jessica Taylor

If everything is bigger in Texas, then Republicans are in for a doozy of a Senate primary. Attorney General Ken Paxton made his long-expected challenge to Sen. John Cornyn official on Tuesday evening, teeing up an intraparty clash the party fears will sap resources from other competitive races in 2026 and could give Democrats a shot at flipping the seat in a favorable midterm environment. “Sacrificing Texas is not an option,” said one national GOP strategist.
Don’t Expect Congressional Republicans to Rein in Trump’s Tariff Authority

2 weeks ago | cookpolitical.com | Amy Walter

After President Trump announced a 90-day “pause” on tariffs for most countries except for China, Wall Street watchers weren’t the only ones breathing a sigh of relief. Trump’s reversal was also welcome news to many nervous Republicans worried about the potential for a full-blown global trade war and a subsequent recession that could sink their 2026 election chances. Well, for now. There’s no guarantee that this is the end of the whiplash-inducing trade policies coming from the White House.
2026 Georgia House Analysis: Peach State Ripe for Primary Action

2 weeks ago | cookpolitical.com | Matthew Klein

Georgia is once again warming up for the national stage, with competitive gubernatorial and Senate contests beginning to brew. But its House races are an entirely different story. None of the state’s 14 congressional districts are expected to land on the 2026 battlefield, mostly because the General Assembly’s rigid Republican gerrymander slices and dices Atlanta’s sprawling suburbs to prevent them from jeopardizing the nine seats the party currently holds.
2026 Hawaii House Analysis: Democrats Maintain Their Reign

2 weeks ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

Since Hawaii joined the union in 1959, Democrats have dominated the state’s congressional delegation. The 1st District, anchored in the capital city of Honolulu, has only elected two Republicans to Congress: Pat Saiki, who served from 1987-1991, and Charles Djou, who was elected in a 2010 special election and served a single term. The 2nd District, which encompasses the Neighbor Islands and the rural outskirts of Oahu, has never elected a Republican.
The One Lever That Can Still Move Partisans

2 weeks ago | cookpolitical.com | Charlie Cook

Economic anxiety—encompassing inflation, the stock market, declining retirement-account balances—now seems to be at a once-a-generation level. President Trump’s stewardship of the economy, particularly his tariff policies, could hardly be more important as we look to the midterm elections.
Upcoming Specials in Arizona and Texas Could Signal Democratic Party’s Direction

3 weeks ago | cookpolitical.com | Erin Covey

After Republicans comfortably won two U.S. House special elections in Florida — and after President Donald Trump’s retraction of Rep. Elise Stefanik’s appointment canceled a potentially competitive special election in New York — Democrats have no opportunities currently on the table to take control of a House seat in 2025. But Democratic primary contests in two upcoming special elections could signal the direction of a party that’s locked out of power in Washington.