Fan-Yu Kuo

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Articles

Housing Inflation Moderates Amid Higher Energy Costs

Jan 15, 2025 | eyeonhousing.org | Fan-Yu Kuo |Eric Lynch

Inflation edged up to a five-month high in December as energy prices surged, accounting for more than 40% of the monthly headline increase. Inflation ended 2024 at a 2.9% rate, down from 3.4% a year ago, although the last mile to the Fed’s 2% target continues to be challenging.
Mortgage Applications Increase Marginally in December

Jan 8, 2025 | eyeonhousing.org | Catherine S. L. Koh |Fan-Yu Kuo

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey, increase marginally by 2.9% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. Compared to December 2023, the index is higher by 10.2%. The Market Composite Index includes the Purchase and Refinance Indices, which saw monthly gains of 4.1% and 6.7% (SA), respectively.
Consumer Confidence Dips Amid Economic Outlook

Dec 23, 2024 | eyeonhousing.org | Fan-Yu Kuo

Consumer confidence fell to a three-month low in December amid growing concerns about economic uncertainties, especially potential tariffs. These policy changes could derail inflation progress and lead the Fed to slow its easing pace. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 112.8 to 104.7 in December, the largest monthly decline since August 2021.
Inflation Remains Sticky Despite Easing Housing Costs

Dec 11, 2024 | eyeonhousing.org | Fan-Yu Kuo

Inflation picked up to 2.7% in November, while matching expectations, the last mile to the Fed’s 2% target proves to be the most challenging. Shelter costs continued to be the main driver of inflation, contributing nearly 40% of the monthly increase. However, the year-over-year change in the shelter index remained below 5% for a third straight month and posted its lowest annual gain since February 2022, suggesting moderation in housing inflation.
Mortgage Rates Rise in November Amid Post-Election Market Volatility

Dec 9, 2024 | eyeonhousing.org | Catherine S. L. Koh |Fan-Yu Kuo

Mortgage rates climbed in November, driven by market volatility and a surge in Treasury yields following the recent elections. On the day after the election results, the 10-year Treasury yield spiked by 14 basis points (bps), setting the stage for further rate increases throughout the month. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased 38 basis points from October, reaching 6.81%.
October New Home Sales Down on Higher Rates

Nov 26, 2024 | eyeonhousing.org | Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington |Robert Dietz |Fan-Yu Kuo |Jing Fu

Steadily rising mortgage rates coupled with ongoing affordability challenges kept many potential home buyers on the sidelines in October. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in October declined 17.3% to a 610,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in October is down 9.4% compared to a year earlier.
Existing Home Sales Rebound in October

Nov 21, 2024 | eyeonhousing.org | Fan-Yu Kuo |Catherine S. L. Koh

Existing home sales in October rebounded from a 14-year low and posted the first annual increase in more than three years, as buyers took advantage when mortgage rates briefly reached a 2-year low in late September, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). While elevated home prices persist due to the lock-in effect, we expect sales activity to increase as mortgage rates moderate with additional Fed easing.
US Housing Costs Continue to Drive Inflation

Nov 14, 2024 | treefrogcreative.ca | Fan-Yu Kuo |Kevin Mason |Bob Brash |Robert McKellar

US Housing Costs Continue to Drive Inflation By Fan-Yu Kuo NAHB – Eye on Housing November 13, 2024 Category: Finance & Economics Region: United States Inflation picked up again in October, showing the last mile to the 2% target will be the hardest.
Housing Costs Continue to Drive Inflation

Nov 13, 2024 | eyeonhousing.org | Fan-Yu Kuo

Inflation picked up again in October, showing the last mile to the 2% target will be the hardest. Shelter costs remained the main driver of inflation, accounting for over 65% of the 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index. However, the year-over-year change in the shelter index has been below 5% for the second consecutive month, signaling some moderation in housing inflation.
A Rate Cut from the Fed: What Will the Terminal Rate Be?

Nov 7, 2024 | eyeonhousing.org | Robert Dietz |Fan-Yu Kuo

The Fed cut the short-term federal funds rate by an additional 25 basis points at the conclusion of its November meeting, reducing the top target rate to 4.75%. However, while the Fed noted it is making progress to its 2% inflation target, it did not provide post-election guidance on the pace and ultimate path for future interest rate cuts.