Felix Jauvin

6 days ago | blockworks.co | Felix Jauvin

With the US imposing 145% tariffs on China, the two largest economies in the world are effectively in a trade embargo. Shipping volumes from China are completely freezing up. Many compare this situation to the Covid supply chain shock we experienced just a few years ago. To better understand what's truly going on and how to effectively analyze the situation, I had Craig Fuller, CEO and founder of FreightWaves, on Forward Guidance this week to unpack all things shipping and logistics.

2 weeks ago | 0xzx.com | Felix Jauvin

特朗普暗示投资者抛售美元资产，《前瞻指引》指出现在可能是提现美元计价资产的时机。特朗普政府旨在减少贸易逆差，尤其是商品贸易逆差。长期以来，美国依赖于制造成本更低国家的商品进口，推动了对美元资产的需求，压低了国债收益率并抬高了美股估值。然而，特朗普政府正试图逆转这一趋势，促使境外投资者提现美元资产，可能导致债券收益率上涨和股市下跌。投资者应认真关注这一信号。 特朗普正在暗示你抛售美元资产 《前瞻指引》撰文指出，现在或许是时候提现美元计价资产了。，现在或许是时候提现美元计价资产了。 当前已明确可见，特朗普政府的核心目标之一就是缩减与其他国家的贸易逆差，尤其是商品贸易逆差。，尤其是商品贸易逆差。 资料来源：弗雷德 必须强调这一区分——— 因为美国实际上保持着服务贸易顺差 美国机械性地从制造更优、成本更低的国家进口“商品”，美元流向这些国家以完成采购。，美元流向这些国家以完成采购。 这些境外美元随后又被重新投资于美国国债、美股等美元计价资产。数十年来，这种机械性需求人为推高了美元汇率，同时掏空了因制造业岗位外流而衰败的美国中产阶级。，同时掏空了因制造业岗位外流而衰败的美国中产阶级。...

2 weeks ago | blockworks.co | Felix Jauvin

It's clear at this point that one of the Trump administration's primary goals is to lower trade deficits with other countries, specifically goods trade deficits. It's important to make that distinction because, in fact, the US runs a services surplus! The US mechanically imports "stuff" from other countries that manufacture it both better and cheaper. And as the reserve currency of the world, US dollars flow into those other countries to fund those purchases.

3 weeks ago | blockworks.co | Felix Jauvin

In the world of macro, the FOMC roadshow has been sidelined as global markets and pundits are squarely focused on Trump's trade policies and their impacts on the global economy. That creates a state of fragility with a bunch of crosscurrents. Economic activity is grinding to a halt as businesses have trouble making hiring and capital investment decisions without knowing what the outlook will be on tariffs.

1 month ago | blockworks.co | Felix Jauvin

We got the Trump put: The president finally caved after the yield on the 30-year bond hit 5%. As is the theme for this year, the bond market is driving everything, and equity markets are simply along for the ride. The bond market started to fall apart late Tuesday evening, and I admittedly got very worried about financial stability. In a two-hour span, the 30-year rose 21bps and hit 5%.