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Nov 22, 2024 | 
carnegieendowment.org | Holden Karnofsky
There is significant interest among both industry leaders and governments in if-then commitments for artificial intelligence (AI): commitments of the form, If an AI model has capability X, risk mitigations Y must be in place. And if needed, we’ll delay AI deployment and/or development to ensure this.
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Jun 20, 2024 | 
lesswrong.com | Holden Karnofsky
Last year, I posted a call for case studies on social-welfare-based standards for companies and products (including standards imposed by regulation). The goal was to gain general context on standards to inform work on possible standards and/or regulation for AI. This resulted in several dozen case studies that I found informative and helpful.
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Jan 25, 2024 | 
carnegieendowment.org | Holden Karnofsky
If-then commitments are an emerging framework for preparing for risks from AI without unnecessarily slowing the development of new technology. The more attention and interest there is these commitments, the faster a mature framework can progress.
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Jan 18, 2024 | 
cold-takes.com | Holden Karnofsky
Yes, this is my first post in almost a year. I’m no longer prioritizing this blog, but I will still occasionally post something. I wrote ~2 years ago that it was hard to point to concrete opportunities to help the most important century go well. That’s changing. There are a good number of jobs available now that are both really promising opportunities to help (in my opinion) and are suitable for people without a lot of pre-existing knowledge of AI risk (or even AI).
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Sep 8, 2023 | 
forum.effectivealtruism.org | Aaron Gertler |Vaidehi Agarwalla |Peter Wildeford |Holden Karnofsky
Discussions about impact-oriented careers will be featured on the EA Forum this week (September 8 - 15, 2023) — it's “Career Conversations Week.” This sequence kicks off the event and collects some classic posts on the topic. If you want to explore posts written for the event, go to this tag (you can also subscribe by clicking on the bell icon).
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Jul 31, 2023 | 
carnegieendowment.org | Holden Karnofsky
What cognitive tasks can humans do that AI systems can’t? For many years—up until roughly a decade ago—it was easy to answer this question. There are basic tasks that most humans can do with very little effort, but that AI systems weren’t able to do comparably well, such as identifying an object from an image, listening to speech and writing down the corresponding text, and resolving basic linguistic ambiguities. But over the last few years, it’s been a very different situation.
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Jun 13, 2023 | 
forum.effectivealtruism.org | Ted Sanders |Holden Karnofsky
To what extent can humans forecast the impacts of superintelligent AGI? From one point of view, trying to understand superintelligence seems utterly intractable. Just as a dog or chimpanzee has little hope of comprehending the motivations and powers of humans, why should humans have any hope of comprehending the motivations and powers of superintelligence? But from another point of view, forecasting the impacts of superintelligence may yet be possible.
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Jun 6, 2023 | 
lesswrong.com | Holden Karnofsky
I sometimes hear people asking: “What is the plan for avoiding a catastrophe from misaligned AI?”This post gives my working answer to that question - sort of. Rather than a plan, I tend to think of a playbook.1A plan connotes something like: “By default, we ~definitely fail.
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May 26, 2023 | 
forum.effectivealtruism.org | Holden Karnofsky |Ben Stewart |Aris Richardson
I’m looking for concise, informative case studies on social-welfare-based standards1 for companies and products (including standards imposed by regulation). I think case studies could help a lot with making AI safety standards work. This post outlines:Some quick background on the state of (and hopes for) AI safety standards. Why I think case studies can be useful. Some specific standards that seem especially relevant (), and guidance on the case studies I’m seeking ().
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Apr 25, 2023 | 
cold-takes.com | Holden Karnofsky
Here’s a quick guide to the AI content on Cold Takes. The Most Important CenturyThis is the core of my AI content - the case that AI could make this the most important century of all time for humanity. It’s a long series, but this page has a short written summary with all the key charts, plus a link to audio for the whole series (4 hours) or shorter discussions on podcasts.
