Ted Sanders

Mar 22, 2024 | lesswrong.com | Ted Sanders

In a dry field, a band of feral children crowd around a dim glow. The fire is small, but it’s the first they’ve ever made. Until now, most doubted it possible. Fire, from rubbed sticks? But the flicker and crackle is proof. One child raises her voice. “This is dangerous. It might set the field ablaze. Let’s stop.”The others dismiss her.

Jun 13, 2023 | forum.effectivealtruism.org | Ted Sanders |Holden Karnofsky

To what extent can humans forecast the impacts of superintelligent AGI? From one point of view, trying to understand superintelligence seems utterly intractable. Just as a dog or chimpanzee has little hope of comprehending the motivations and powers of humans, why should humans have any hope of comprehending the motivations and powers of superintelligence? But from another point of view, forecasting the impacts of superintelligence may yet be possible.

Jun 6, 2023 | lesswrong.com | Steven Byrnes |Ted Sanders |Daniel Kokotajlo |Gerald M. Monroe

P(We invent algorithms for transformative AGI | No derailment from regulation, AI, wars, pandemics, or severe depressions): .8P(We invent a way for AGIs to learn faster than humans | We invent algorithms for transformative AGI): 1. This row is already incorporated into the previous row. P(AGI inference costs drop below $25/hr (per human equivalent): 1.