Ignacio Garcia Bercero

1 month ago | bruegel.org | Rebecca Christie |Ignacio Garcia Bercero |Heather Grabbe

The outcome of the 19 May European Union-United Kingdom summit took the form primarily of declarations of intent that will need to be followed with substantive negotiations. Nevertheless, the summit was a major step towards the EU and UK working together more closely. The most ambitious part of the EU-UK reset is on security and defence. This makes sense because the EU cannot achieve strategic autonomy without working with the UK to build effective defences and deter Russian aggression.

1 month ago | bruegel.org | Ignacio Garcia Bercero |Rebecca Christie |Uri Dadush |Niclas Poitiers

The major turbulence being experienced by the world economy could lead to a global recession and the collapse of the norms and institutions that have been critical for stability and economic development since the Second World War. In particular, the United States has adopted a level of tariff protection last seen in the 1930s and there are signals of financial instability that could weaken the role of the dollar in the international monetary system.

1 month ago | bruegel.org | Ignacio Garcia Bercero |Rebecca Christie |Uri Dadush |Niclas Poitiers

Since the suspension on 9 April by President Trump of so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ higher than 10%, the United States has announced trade agreements with the United Kingdom and China (on 8 May and 12 May, respectively). The UK agreement offers a preferential tariff rate quota (TRQ) on UK exports of steel, aluminium and cars, in exchange for preferential concessions for US beef and ethanol. The China agreement rolls back the 115% increase in tariffs that both sides introduced in early April.

2 months ago | bruegel.org | Niclas Poitiers |Rebecca Christie |Uri Dadush |Ignacio Garcia Bercero

President Donald Trump’s tariffs clearly pose a profound challenge to the global rules-based trading system, marking a huge shift after decades of multilateral trade liberalisation that had left tariffs at near-historic lows. The economic impact on the European Union is much less clear, however.

2 months ago | bruegel.org | Ignacio Garcia Bercero |Rebecca Christie |Uri Dadush |Niclas Poitiers

After two weeks of chaos, the tariff policy of the United States under President Donald Trump appears to be converging around three elements: 1) a baseline import surcharge of 10%, with the main purpose of raising revenue; 2) protective tariffs of 25% on steel, aluminium, cars and car parts, which are likely to be extended to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors; 3) special treatment for China, although it is unclear whether the US will maintain its current prohibitive tariffs (at time of...